As 10m seemed dire, I decided to go on 2m FT8 with 5W from the IC-705. Immediately, I was spotted by a couple of stations.
UPDATE 1605z: Already my 5W to the big wheel omni antenna has been spotted by 9 stations including a couple in Northern Ireland. Who needs beams and high power?
UPDATE 1844z: 20 stations have spotted me so far. On 2m FT8 RX the furthermost spotted is DL2ART (499km).