Early in the month I enjoy looking at the forecast for the solar cycle on my favourite site for such data. At the moment the peak for sunspots in cycle 25 looks like August 2024, but it depends on the smoothing period.
What should be the case, is solar conditions should be good for some time yet. I wanted to link to the image on the solan website but failed. Clearly the copyright is with solan.
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| https://www.solen.info/solar/ |
There is no doubt that we have seen some very high solar activity of late.
Both solar flux and sunspot numbers have been high. As the peak of the solar cycle is an average, it will be many months after the event that we will know when the peak actually occurred. The good news is solar conditions will be good for several years yet.
My favourite site for solar data pushed into this year the peak of solar cycle 25. It was November 2023 for some time. I am wondering if this has to be adjusted yet again, based on the high solar activity this month? They take an average so the peak is always some months ahead of the month with the highest numbers.
According to my favourite site for solar data, the maximum for solar cycle 25 was probably June 2024 i.e. quite recently.
Usually, near the start of the month my favourite site for solar data has a major update. This last few weeks have seen days with high solar flux and sunspot numbers, so it will be interesting to see if forecasts have changed much.
My best site for solar data has been updated as it always is at the start of a month. It shows us just over the solar cycle peak. Unless we see a second peak (possible) we could be on a long decline to solar minimum. We can expect good conditions on the higher HF bands for some years yet.
I remember working South America on 10m QRP SSB (10W pep and a dipole) right at the solar minimum and zero sunspots. With FT8 this should be even easier.
Stick with the higher HF bands!
Early every month, my favourite site for solar data is updated. It is worth checking to see how things are progressing.
It looks like the peak of solar cycle 25 may have been reached. November 2023 was the month shown as the predicted peak of this cycle. This has not changed for months on my favourite site for solar data.
We can expect conditions to be for several more years.
According to my favourite site for solar data, the peak of solar cycle 25 is still November 2023, which is just next month. The data was only updated today.
Solar conditions could still be good for several years yet.
My favourite site for solar data was updated today. It still shows the peak of solar cycle 25 as November 2023. This is early and conditions of late were on the slide. Unless we get a higher peak we could already be on the downward slopes. As mentioned before, solar conditions could be good for several years still.
In the past, there has been a lot of doubt and uncertainty over the timing of this. The site I mostly use has been predicting the next maximum in November or December 2023 for some time.
Quite often we get a second peak after the first. What is clear from other cycles is that conditions could be good for several years after the peak.
In the past I have worked stations in Argentina on QRP 10m SSB when the sunspot count right at the minimum has been zero. Quite often 10m propagation is there but there is a lack of activity. With FT8, we can now monitor the higher bands and see. Stand alone 5W FT8 transceivers for 10m can be obtained quite inexpensively freeing up "the big rig".
See https://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_similar_cycles.png .
According to the latest update to my favourite site for solar data, the next sunspot maximum is still shown as December 2023 with a smoothed number of 142.5. This makes it a very short time since the minimum. The information was updated today.
The site I always look at for the latest data is still showing the peak of this solar cycle in November 2023, i.e. this year. The information was only updated today.
It looks like the coming days (especially today) could see quite disturbed solar conditions due to a coronal mass ejection (CME) on the sun. I am not clever enough to know how this will effect HF and low VHF.
The sunspot count remains respectably high with counts of over 100 most days. My favourite site for solar data is still showing the next solar peak as Nov 2023, which seems quite early. Figures are usually revised in the early days of the new month.
The 11 year solar cycle is an average with some cycles shorter than this and some longer.
I am most definitely not an expert on this area, but note my favourite site for solar data is still forecasting the peak in November this year. Whatever, solar conditions are good at the moment. 10m (my favourite HF band) is in great shape and could be for several years. Even in the depths of the last solar minimum some spectacular DX was spotted on FT8.
As we are early in the month, my favourite site for solar data gets updated with the latest figures.
At the moment, the peak of solar cycle 25 is expected in November 2023 with a peak of 141. I cannot recall what way of averaging was used. If this peak date is the case, HF conditions could be good for several years to come.
I recall spotting South Americans at the very minimum on 10m FT8. This is why FT8 could be so useful. I like FT8 as it allows easy monitoring of even short openings.
Anyway, I hope you enjoy good conditions! When conditions are good, SSB, FM and AM QSOs can be had with low power on 10m.
My favourite site for solar data has been updated. It still looks like future forecasts have been upgraded, suggesting this could be a better solar cycle than was once expected.
