Second peak for cycle 24?

It looks more and more likely that cycle 24 is going to have a second peak with a greater magnitude than that of the first peak of Feb 2012. Today the sunspot count is 150. It will take several months before the smoothed sunspot number is known, but the indicators are good.

Recent excellent conditions on 10m are further evidence of good times. Since home from hospital (Jan 3rd) 10m has been open to N.America every afternoon that I have listened.

As the slope down to the minimum is more gradual than the ascent to the peak(s), we can expect decent HF conditions for a few years to come.

The new peak is not great and we may we be heading to a Maunder Minimum with very little sunspot activity for perhaps 40-50 years. Enjoy these HF conditions while you can  because we may not see them again in our lifetimes.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/ .

UPDATE 1300z:  My first report from the USA (running 2W WSPR) was as early as 1244z, indicating a VERY early 10m stateside opening today at my very low power level.. Conditions remain excellent on 10m.  7088km, not bad.

New Solar Peak?

The most recent high solar activity looks likely to mean a new second sunspot peak for cycle 24.  See http://www.solen.info/solar/ .

http://www.solen.info/solar/

This page was showing the peak as 66.9 (smoothed sunspot number) in Feb 2012 but expect to see this revised to a much later date! I find this site very useful.

A solar peak in late 2013 and another in 2015?

Some experts at NASA are predicting some strange behaviour in the next few years with the possibility of a twin peak for cycle 24 but with one peak being this year and the other on 2015. A similar twin peak occurred in cycle 14 in the early 1900s.  See http://www.arrl.org/news/solar-cycle-24-may-have-double-peaks-says-nasa-solar-physicist.  If this happens we may have (half) decent conditions for several years yet in this current solar cycle.

Conditions in this peak really are very different from the massive peaks in the middle and late 20th century when worldwide DX was workable with ease on the higher HF bands and even 6m. OK, it is still possible to work all over the world but, believe me, it WAS a lot easier back then.

Solar activity this month

A quick glance at the solar data over the last week or two will convince anyone that things are looking up. Many believe that a second peak, not that uncommon, is likely soon and that this peak will actually turn out to be the real peak of cycle 24. It is some time since we have seen sunspot numbers as high as this for so many days in a row. In the end, the peak is usually based on smoothed sunspot numbers so it will be very many months into the future before we will know if the recent upsurge has helped to make a new smoothed peak.

I see there is a possibility of M or X class flares in the next two days which could affect propagation, although I think it improbable these will be on a scale likely to knock out power stations and satellites. At some future point, most likely long after all of us are long dead and at a time when the cycles return to huge numbers of sunspots, it will happen though. Of course large solar flares can happen at any time, so you never know.

For more data on the recent solar activity see http://www.solen.info/solar/ .

WISPY spans the globe

Today WISPY, my little 10m 200mW WSPR beacon, excelled itself getting spots from 5 continents with the best being a spot from Australia late this morning. 

Conditions in the last few days have been excellent. I keep reminding myself that if, as some are now saying, cycle 24 has already peaked and we are on the way down, conditions in my lifetime (and probably most of those reading this) are unlikely EVER to be as good again.  It is just possible there may be a second peak next year which is stronger, but I somehow doubt this now.

Unique 10m WSPR reports with 200mW and a halo today

Solar predictions

The NASA solar physics website has some recent updates to the solar cycle peak predictions:

"The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 76 in the Fall of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number (for 2012/02) is already nearly 67 due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. We are currently well over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906."

Looks like they are expecting a double peak cycle with a slightly larger peak about a year from now. We'll see. The peak is likely to be very low compared with mega-peaks seen in the last half century.

Solar peak THIS year?

The more I look at the data the more convinced I am that we are now reaching (or may have already passed?) the peak of solar cycle 24 much earlier than expected and at a very low peak level. See some interesting data at http://www.solen.info/solar/polarfields/polar.html about solar magnetic field reversals and the latest plot of solar flux and sunspots at http://www.solen.info .  For several months now the general smoothed trend, ignoring blips, is downwards.  We may never again experience the exceptional HF conditions seen at the peak of some sunspot cycles in the last 50 years, at least not in my lifetime.

Sunspots - high 60s

Have you noticed how high the sunspot count is climbing? Today it is 66 or 70 depending on which measure you take. This is not far off the sunspot count predicted at the peak of cycle 24 in about 3 years' time. If this trend continues, we could be in for a bigger peak than some were predicting. It could by just a blip.

The VERY quiet Sun

Have you noticed how long we've been now without any sunspots? The graph at http://www.solen.info/solar/ suggests it's been almost 7 weeks now. A few months ago we were expecting the start of cycle 24 and some hopeful signs were emerging. Then things turned down again and it is doubtful we've started to enter cycle 24, although the slightly increased solar flux levels may be a hint. We can only wait and see.

At least the higher HF bands plus 6 and 4m will be livened up by sporadic-E shortly. If we were entering a long Maunder minimum (I doubt it) then the summer spor-E "sport" could be the best DX opportunities we'd get on 10 and 6m.