Solar data

It looks like the peak of solar cycle 25 may have been reached. November 2023 was the month shown as the predicted peak of this cycle. This has not changed for months on my favourite site for solar data.

We can expect conditions to be for several more years.

Solar data

The latest information on solar cycle 25 is out. It still shows the peak as November this year, which is early.

See https://www.solen.info/solar/ . 

Solar cycle peak this year?

The 11 year solar cycle is an average with some cycles shorter than this and some longer. 

I am most definitely not an expert on this area, but note my favourite site for solar data is still forecasting the peak in November this year. Whatever, solar conditions are good at the moment. 10m (my favourite HF band) is in great shape and could be for several years. Even in the depths of the last solar minimum some spectacular DX was spotted on FT8.

Solar data

 At the start of the month, there is usually an update of solar data at this site. It is usually my first port of call for solar data. 

As late as yesterday, it was still showing the solar peak as November 2023, which seems early to me, although I am no solar expert!

See https://www.solen.info/solar/ .

Higher than expected solar peak?

At the moment, we are on target for a solar peak higher than we expected. 

This could cause higher disruption to telecoms infrastructure, but openings stronger on the higher HF bands and 6m. For radio amateurs, this could be good news.

Cycle 25 predictions

We are now on the up-slopes towards the solar peak of cycle 25. I have not seen very recent forecasts but this forecast suggested it looks as if it will be very similar to the last peak i.e. quite low.

See https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle .

Solar cycle 25 - latest predictions

It is some time since I saw predictions for the next solar cycle, but we have got off to a roaring start. I am no expert, but signs are promising. Who would have expected solar flux and sunspots to be this good?

The climb up from solar minimum has been dramatic and fast with sunspot numbers and solar flux levels much greater than we all expected. 

We should deal in averages and this could just be a blip, but I hope the next solar cycle is a decent one. No doubt the latest NOAA and NASA forecasts are worth a look.

Cycle 25 forecasts?

It is some time since I saw a forecast for the magnitude of the next sunspot maximum. 

We certainly seem to be on the up-slopes after the solar minimum. If there have been any recent forecasts, I have missed them! Please let me know if you know of any recent ones. 

The last forecast I saw was expecting the next peak to be broadly similar to the last one. Compared with the huge peaks after WW2 (e.g. 1957), this was a pretty poor one, although 10m was very good at times. I remember a peak (in the 1980s?)  when ZSs were coming in well on 6m SSB with just a wire dipole. It would be good to see that again.

See https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/what-will-solar-cycle-25-look-like-sun-prediction-model

Solar Cycle 25

According to spaceweather.com, solar cycle 25 has started.  At the moment it is hard to believe as we have had no sunspots for several weeks. 

The latest NASA/NOAA predictions show the next cycle just a tiny bit better than the last one. They are forecasting a weak cycle and peak.

See https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle

See also https://blogs.nasa.gov/solarcycle25/

Predicting the size of the next solar maximum

We know that predicting the size of solar cycle 25 maximum can be extremely difficult: a bit like weather forecasting in that the best predictions are made after the event!  Many try and we are getting better.

A summary of recent predictions is available at the site below made by K9LA. I expect there will be revisions as cycle 25 really starts to motor.

See http://k9la.us/Aug20_Cycle_25_Predictions.pdf

Solar Cycle 25

It would appear we have now passed solar minimum and the long climb has started. This was reported on the Space Weather site recently. This is encouraging, although it could be some years before we see a real improvement. The good news is the up-slope is faster than the down-slope.

Cycle 25 spots

Spaceweather.com reports cycle 25 spots are appearing. At the same time we are still seeing spots from cycle 24. It will still be a while before cycle 25 begins properly and we can confidently say sunspot cycle 25 is really motoring.

See https://spaceweather.com/

Hope?

"It seems we have crossed a threshold. Though solar activity remains low, recent history shows no Solar Cycle 24 sunspots, only Solar Cycle 25 activity. I remain optimistic." 

From the K7RA propagation website.

New forecast for solar cycle 25

A panel of NOAA and NASA experts has issued a new forecast for cycle 25.

See https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-forecast-update

The next solar peak (cycle 25)

At the moment the indications are for the next solar peak to be the same or slightly larger than cycle 24. Of course it is still too early to be sure, but I hope the signs that we are not going to experience another Maunder Minimum are correct.

Compared with several years ago the solar peaks are much smaller, but at least 10m was pretty good for several years around even the last peak.

See https://solen.info/solar/polarfields/polar.html

Solar cycle 25 predictions

Already, I have mentioned the "expert predictions" for the next cycle. Based purely on my own views (often wrong!) I am beginning to side with the latest NOAA forecast which was published in April. This is forecasting a weak peak 2023-26 (similar to the last one) with the solar minimum between July 2019 and September 2020.

See https://earthsky.org/space/solar-cycle-25-likely-weak-according-to-predictions

Sunspot cycle 25 start?

Some forecasts are suggesting that cycle 25 will start this year.

This image is at http://www.solen.info/solar/images/cycles23_24.png.

See https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.04868

Solar cycle 25

It is a while since I saw the very latest news of the forecasts for the next peak and when the climb to it is likely to begin. We are very clearly at solar minimum.

Some forecasts were suggesting the end of the minimum as late as February 2019. It may already have passed or it could last all next year.

If you are aware of very recent forecasts, please share them with us.

Solar cycle 25 start

"While smaller spots with the correct polarity alignment of cycle 25 regions have been observed at high latitude locations as early as 2016, this overview will only include spots large enough to have been visible at a 1K resolution. In the case of reversed polarity cycle 24 regions, those that are not at a sufficiently high latitude (ie. 30 degrees or more), are considered most likely to belong to cycle 24 and will not be included in this list until closer to the actual solar cycle minimum (likely to be sometime between August 2018 and February 2019)."

Notice the last few words. This was copied from http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html .

Solar cycle 25

Having scanned what is available, my conclusion is that solar cycle 25 is expected to be much the same as cycle 24 i.e. not great. Perhaps it will be very slightly weaker.  The experts are also expecting the minimum to be quite long. Predictions are getting better, but this by no means an exact science.

This is probably the last peak I shall be around to see, so I hope it is reasonable.

See https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018GL078387