Perverse? - NOT amateur radio

On the day a vaccine for Covid-19 was approved for UK rollout, the value of the UK pound against the major currencies such as the euro, yen and US dollar has fallen! OK I appreciate a BREXIT deal has still to be done, but I was expecting the pound to have a good day.

Exchange rate against the euro - NOT amateur radio

At the moment, the pound is appreciating in value against the euro. This may be just a blip or it may be sustained. 

The big unanswered question is will there be a trade deal. I hope so, as this is in the interests of the UK and EU. Expect some brinkmanship in the next few weeks! If the UK leaves without a deal I think this would be the height of stupidity. Having said that, nothing would surprise me with Boris, the UK Prime Minister. He has some very similar traits to Donald Trump.

Climbing pound? - NOT amateur radio

Since the coronavirus hit the world, everything feels different.

It almost feels surreal and that somehow life will never, ever, be quite the same again. Right now things seem dreadful. In time, things will get better, but it will take time and hard work.

Since the crisis started the UK Pound fell heavily against the Euro. In recent weeks it has regained much of those losses. Maybe the world sees the Euro under threat as the coronavirus debt has to be paid, probably by the richer north.   With the UK out of the EU, perhaps the UK will be master of its own destiny? At the moment it is still climbing.

The world has never been in this situation before and we are all searching for a way. The hope is in a vaccine (some way off) or drug treatments (possibly sooner).

UPDATE 0840z: Still climbing.

The UK pound against the euro

When I looked last night, the UK pound had suddenly appreciated further against the euro. At one point it was worth little more than 1.07 euros, whereas now (last night) it was over 1.13. Before the BREXIT referendum, it was far higher. Does this suggest a big rebound if we (finally) agree a deal?

With all the uncertainty over BREXIT some were expecting it to fall close to parity. I am puzzled.

UK pound losing value - NOT amateur radio

Perhaps this is to be expected with all the uncertainty over BREXIT, but the UK pound is losing value against major currencies.

My view is Boris Johnson will be elected leader of the Conservative Party and UK Prime Minister. He will try to get better terms from the EU and fail. There will be a vote of no-confidence in the government, which will be lost. There will be a general election with a coalition between Labour and the Lib-Dems. Another referendum will be held and we will vote to stay in the EU. Of course I could be very wrong!

UK pound versus the euro - NOT amateur radio

We have already seen quite big falls in the value of the UK pound against several major currencies. With the continued uncertainty over the UK Prime Minister and BREXIT, things are likely to get worse. Personally, I can't see any quick fix on the horizon. What is more likely is the UK pound will continue to lose money.

We are ruled by a bunch of public school toffs who haven't a clue about life for the majority. Sadly we voted them in!

It is in their (financial) interest to show non-Conservatives in a bad light. Remember, most of the written media is owned/controlled by right wingers. We are manipulated more than we realise.

Pound versus the Euro - NOT amateur radio

Well, I am baffled.

Today we awoke to the news that the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May faces a no-confidence vote and could be out of her job tonight. The BREXIT vote in the UK House of Commons has been delayed. Frantically, Theresa May is trying to get words added by the EU to the UK exit deal so it gets a majority in the House of Commons.

Now, if I was a betting man - I am not - I would have expected the UK pound to fall in value against the Euro. What has happened? The UK pound has gone up against the Euro! Good job I am not in charge.

Sterling - NOT amateur radio

On the face of it, we are in for a rough time. The UK government was found in contempt of parliament last night and the UK parliament is quite likely to reject the Prime Minister's EU BREXIT deal next Tuesday when this is voted on in the House of Commons.

So what happens? Stirling goes up in value against the Euro!  As I write, it is up 0.48%. Maybe, the UK economy will be OK when we leave the EU or people assume we will walk away unless the deal is a fair one.

UK Pound v. Euro - NOT amateur radio

Volatility. This best sums up the situation. Recently, the Pound has been clawing back some of its recent losses against the Euro, although until BREXIT is sorted we can expect big swings up and down.

UK Pound versus Euro - NOT amateur radio

We live in uncertain times in the UK. I guess the markets are waiting to see how BREXIT pans out.

If we end with a reasonable "divorce" I guess the UK Pound could appreciate in value. If we leave on bad terms, the Pound could fall.

At the moment the EU and UK are both playing hard, although expect last minute bargaining: it is in nobody's interest to part badly.

If only the EU had detected the signs that little UK is full up and did not want freedom of movement I expect we would still be in the club.

UK Pound against Euro - NOT amateur radio

Not quite sure why, but the UK Pound has suddenly jumped against the Euro as if something happened. No doubt I'll find out later. I expect it will fall again tomorrow.

UK pound against the Euro - NOT amateur radio

We still await a Brexit deal that respectful of both the UK and the EU. It is in everyone's interest to split amicably.

In the meantime the UK Pound and the Euro are just bumbling along. The exchange rate has hardly changed in some months. Although it fell quite a bit following the Brexit referendum it has been around 1.14 Euros to the UK Pound for some time. It dipped to around 1.12 but seems to have climbed a bit.

Last year I was expecting the Euro to fall in value, but this does not appear to be happening any time soon. Fundamentally, I still think the Euro is under threat.

See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cx250jmk4e7t/pound-sterling-gbp

UK Pound against the Euro - NOT amateur radio

In recent weeks the UK Pound has been weak against the Euro. It has not been helped by BREXIT uncertainty and poor GDP figures. Once the BREXIT deal becomes clearer, I expect the UK Pound to strengthen against the Euro. It is entirely possible I am totally wrong. After all, I was last year!

Pound jump v. Euro: why? - NOT amateur radio

Mid afternoon the value of the UK Pound suddenly jumped against the Euro. Anyone know why? In the UK this is a public holiday, so it was probably something in the EU.

UK Pound versus the Euro - NOT amateur radio

OK, I was wrong!

Some time back, I predicted the Euro would lose value against the UK Pound by the end of the year. It looks like I shall be spectacularly wrong. What a surprise!

Perhaps the best advice is to believe the exact opposite of what I think. As said many times, I am no financial expert.

UK pound versus euro exchange rate - NOT amateur radio

Some time ago I predicted that the pound would appreciate against the euro before the year end. Well, it is mid October and, if anything, it is losing value! I guess BREXIT uncertainty is the main reason. Fundamentally, the euro still has issues, although I think my end of year may be out.

A blip? - NOT amateur radio

In the last few weeks to UK pound has appreciated by around 6 Eurocents against the Euro. This may, of course, just be a blip. In the long-term, especially once the uncertainty over Brexit is over, I think the UK Pound will strengthen against the Euro considerably. This is my view, and I am no expert.

Fundamentally, I believe the Euro is flawed and there is really no resolution in sight for it main structural issues. Once the UK leaves the EU they will have fewer rich nations to fund the EU coffers. No, the EU is a bit like the curate's egg i.e. "good in parts". If only the members of the EU had given the UK more ground on controlling free movement we'd probably still be inside. Hoisted by their own petard?

I think a lot of the EU's stance is "sour grapes". The UK will be fine outside of the EU and they know it.

Wrong? - NOT amateur radio

Many times I have said that I am most definitely not a financial expert.

My gut told me that the UK Pound would appreciate against the Euro. At the moment the exchange rate is worse than at any time in the last year. So, if you followed my advice you would be completely wrong! I am only going on gut feelings.

My gut still tells me that I will be right, but only time will tell.

UK Pound versus Euro exchange rate - NOT amateur radio

As I write this, the UK pound is close to its worst exchange rate in the last 12 months against the Euro at 1.096 Euros to the UK Pound. Instinctively, this "feels" wrong. Maybe the Euro is stronger than it was, but this feels untrue. Surely the Euro still has all its inherent issues that have not suddenly gone away?  No, I think this is a blip. Time will tell.

UPDATE 1525z: My personal view is the UK pound will rise in value against the euro. As I have said very many times, I am no expert and time may prove me totally wrong! My prediction was this would happen before the end of the year.

UK Pound against the Euro - NOT amateur radio

My prediction was that the UK Pound would appreciate against the Euro later this year. At the moment it is getting weaker!

I am no expert, but still believe that the Euro will weaken. I am definitely not a financial expert and this is more of a hunch than science.