Favourable exchange rates

 I notice that the pound is very strong against the Japanese Yen. It has also got a lot better against the US Dollar.

On the face of this we should expect useful reductions in the price of Japanese gear. Alternatively, dealers can make a greater profit.

Currency fluctuations - NOT amateur radio

In recent days, the exchange rates of the UK Pound against the Euro, US Dollar and Japanese Yen have been varying quite bit. Against the US Dollar it has appreciated quite a bit whereas against the Euro it has lost value.

I guess in such matters one has take a long view. Against the Euro I doubt things will be clearer until the end of 2020 when the EU-UK transition period ends. Against the US Dollar I guess a lot hinges on the Presidential election in November.

The more immediate issue is the Covid-19 pandemic which rather turns things on their heads. The whole world faces the prospect of high unemployment and recession. We are in for hard times ahead. Let us hope we all emerge into a kinder, cleaner world. Things will change. This is a wake-up call for us all.

UK Pound versus Japanese Yen - NOT amateur radio

Why has the UK Pound appreciated so much against the Japanese Yen?  At the moment it is over 156 Yen to the UK Pound. Not too long ago it was the low 120s Yen to the UK Pound.  That is a lot of difference.

Every day, it swings quite widely, but I find this, and the dramatic appreciation, hard to understand. On the face of it, goods made in Japan should get less expensive in the UK.

Perhaps an economist can explain what is going on?

UK Pound exchange rate with US Dollar - NOT amateur radio

At the moment the UK Pound is worth $1.39 which is the best for a year. Some experts were predicting £1 would be worth $1. Not so.

UPDATE 1555z: Currently $1.3959 to the UK Pound.

UPDATE 1950z: There is a chance the UK Pound will break through the $1.40 barrier. Against the Japanese Yen it has gained a lot at 1.55 Yen to the UK Pound. Not too long ago it was worth 1.36 Yen

UK Pound exchange rate - NOT amateur radio

OK, I was wrong about the UK Pound and Euro exchange rate, but the UK Pound has appreciated against the Yen and US Dollar. This should mean goods bought in US Dollars and Yen should get less expensive.

Wrong? - NOT amateur radio

Many times I have said that I am most definitely not a financial expert.

My gut told me that the UK Pound would appreciate against the Euro. At the moment the exchange rate is worse than at any time in the last year. So, if you followed my advice you would be completely wrong! I am only going on gut feelings.

My gut still tells me that I will be right, but only time will tell.

UK Pound versus Euro exchange rate - NOT amateur radio

As I write this, the UK pound is close to its worst exchange rate in the last 12 months against the Euro at 1.096 Euros to the UK Pound. Instinctively, this "feels" wrong. Maybe the Euro is stronger than it was, but this feels untrue. Surely the Euro still has all its inherent issues that have not suddenly gone away?  No, I think this is a blip. Time will tell.

UPDATE 1525z: My personal view is the UK pound will rise in value against the euro. As I have said very many times, I am no expert and time may prove me totally wrong! My prediction was this would happen before the end of the year.

UK Pound to Euro exchange rate - NOT amateur radio

It is my view that the Euro will lose value this year so the UK Pound will buy more Euros. Of course, I could be entirely wrong! The reasons for thinking this are:

• Greek debt is still a big issue and there will be fewer nations able to bail them out.
• Several nations are disillusioned with the Euro project and are worried by totally free movement within the EU.
• Several nations are in favour of tariff-free borders to trade but are nervous of ever closer integration.
• I think the UK will show the world it can succeed outside of the EU.

No, several things point to an improved exchange rate. As for the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen exchange rates, I am less clear.

By the way, in last year's EU referendum I voted to "remain" in the EU. I believe the EU faces a difficult year ahead and this year will be "crunch time".

Pound-Dollar exchange rate - NOT amateur radio

In the last few weeks the pound has gone down against most currencies. This makes UK exports more competitive, but imports dearer. Against the US Dollar the rate is $1.2244 to £1 currently. The world fears a "hard BREXIT" from the EU. My own view is the EU did not want the UK to leave as it needed us to prop up the (failing?) institution. I think the Euro will weaken a great deal in the next 18 months or so. I am no expert though!

In the short term we are likely to see higher UK prices (inflation) and a bettering of our trade deficit. Many EU nations will need our trade in the future. If we depend less on finance and make more, that would not be a bad thing.

The UK Pound - NOT amateur radio

At the moment, the UK pound seems to have stabilised since we voted to leave the EU. The value (about 10% lower) should work in favour of exporters, although less so if their raw materials are imported.

Imports become more expensive. Does this mean we will buy more UK food like UK bacon? Much of our food is imported. We could eat more UK grown food and this would help our balance of payments.

See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/default.stm .

Prices of Japanese radios?

I wonder when the next round of price drops will come on Japanese gear? The big Japanese players such as Yaesu, Icom and Kenwood have had an easy ride of late and been able to dictate prices. Now the competition is waking up, I expect they will be facing tougher times.

The latest exchange rates (UK pound to Japanese Yen) is £1 is worth about 193 Yen. Not many years ago it was less than 130 Yen to the pound. In real terms, Japanese goods should be much less expensive. At the moment both the UK dealers and Japanese are doing very well thank you from a customer base prepared to pay high prices. Expect big falls between now and the year end. This will be partly due exchange rates becoming much better (for those in the UK) and partly due to the increasing threat from the non-Japanese suppliers. Don't you find it amazing how low cost some Chinese hand portables are compared with similar products from Japan? Rip-off come to mind - charge high prices for Japanese goods as long as the suckers pay.

No, the age of UK amateur radio consumers being taken for a ride is ending. The next time you discuss prices with UK dealers remind them of competition and exchange rates! At the moment their margins must be very high. Japanese goods are priced too high in the UK - fact. A few years ago I was more sympathetic, but not any more. UK consumers should pay a fair price with the dealers getting a fair margin, but please don't take us all for mugs. I shall buy when the prices are fair and not before.

If I have this wrong, I shall be interested to hear the dealers viewpoint. Exchange rates have got vastly better and I do not see this reflected in end user prices here in the UK.  Someone is making very handsome profits.

Consumers - vote with your wallets and do not buy overpriced radios.  I have said before, the FT817 is classic example: all development costs were recovered years ago, so the price should be considerably lower than it is. Dealers have dropped the price somewhat, but it is nowhere near what it should be for a very mature design.

Japanese goods should be cheaper!

The exchange rate (Sterling to Yen) has improved enormously in the last few years and was around 195 Yen to the UK Pound in recent days. Not long ago (2 years ago?) it was less than 130 Yen to the Pound. In real terms Japanese radios should be hugely less expensive based on the exchange rate alone becoming so much more favorable. These are not marginal changes they are huge.

Don't feel too sorry for the dealers. After all, they have to put fuel in their cars. If they struggled a few years ago they are not struggling any more! No, we the consumers are seen as easy fodder, to be milked. The dealers make big profits from early adopters who must have that shiny new radio whatever the cost. Once their greed has been satisfied, the price will drop to attract the rest of us.  I predict the Yaesu FT991 will soon drop in price. Just how much will depend on how much of the exchange rate change the dealers are prepared to pass on to us. One thing is certain, the UK dealers are doing well at the moment.

The FT817 is another story. All development costs were recovered in the first few years. As for LCD and other "supply issues" I just do not believe it. These radios have sold well worldwide for about 15 years and Yaesu has the buying power on anything. No, the true story is someone is making huge profits on this radio, and we the buying public are being taken for a ride.

When the Chinese take the amateur market seriously the Japanese suppliers and their dealers will have a rude awakening.

UK price drop - FT817ND

I see that Martin Lynch is now selling the FT817ND for £449.95 (including VAT) which I guess is reflecting the exchange rate against the yen? Years ago it sold for less than £350 with VAT. I think the dealers are still making healthy profits? Why is this like fuel? When prices go up we soon hear about it. When price or exchange rates massively improve the suppliers are generally slow to respond.

Supply and demand?   People are prepared to buy at silly prices and dealers are happy to make good profits whilst they can. At one time a few years ago £1 would get you about 125 Yen. Today £1 gets you more like 175 Yen. Have prices followed? Of course not! Don't be silly - just a bit cheaper!

It would be nice if they were clearing stock ready for a newer model. Sadly, I doubt this is the case.

See https://sites.google.com/site/g3xbmqrp3/hf/ft817 .

Yaesu price drop

http://www.universal-radio.com/

In this month's Practical Wireless , received today, I notice that some of the UK dealers have reduced the price of the Yaesu FT-450D and the FT-950 radios. The FT817ND is still around £534, i.e. no drop (yet). At last, we are beginning to see some of the exchange rate savings being passed on to customers. Thank you dealers. Please may we have even more savings? The exchange rate has moved FAR more in our favour than the price changes would suggest.

Exchange rate changes and ham rigs

In recent weeks the pound sterling has declined quite a bit against the US dollar and the euro. Against the dollar it has fallen from around 1.62 dollars to the pound to around 1.51 to the pound. This makes purchases of rigs like the KX3 even more expensive here in the UK.

On the other hand, the yen has weakened from 125 to the pound to around 142 to the pound.  Expect some discounting of Japanese rigs in the UK incoming months.  The latest yen exchange rate suggests a new FT817ND should be less than £500 again soon.

Which major dealer will be really public spirited and pass on their savings to us the amateur radio public?  Martin Lynch or Waters and Stanton?