BREXIT deal done - NOT amateur radio

So, a deal has (eventually) been done between the EU and the UK. No doubt in the days ahead we will hear the details. I expect, and hope, that both sides compromised and came away feeling the deal was good for all. 

In the 2016 referendum I voted "remain", although I do appreciate that the EU can be protectionist and slow. Whilst we in the UK have vaccinated 500,000 people against Covid-19 the EU has not even started! I can understand the UK does not want to be burdened. On the other hand, the EU has been a power for good.

In my heart I expected a last minute deal: a deal is in the interests of all and there was a degree of brinkmanship to see who would blink first.

See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news

That post-BREXIT trade deal - NOT amateur radio

According to the press, the EU and UK are still talking. 

I am sure there is brinkmanship on both sides going on, and in the end they want the outcome to look like a victory, hard one, on both sides. Although I am not a betting man I give the odds 60:40 on forging a deal. A no deal would do neither side any good. It would not surprise me if this is after Christmas.

Boris Johnson, the UK Prime Minister is no saint. The EU has been portrayed as protectionist. There is little doubt the EU has done some good for the UK.  On the other hand (e.g. Covid vaccines) they seem very slow.

What the UK wants is free trade and less bureaucracy.

See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-55288568

BREXIT brinkmanship - NOT amateur radio

As I write (1030z Saturday) the head of the UK and EU are going to speak on the 'phone and as yet there is no BREXIT trade deal, even though to have one is in everyone's interest. 

I suspect there is brinkmanship on both sides. In these last few weeks, I think these children should throw away their toys and behave as grown-ups if this is possible. We all know that is what is best. 

Go on, get a mutually good deal that all can sell as a success.

UPDATE 1848z: Talks to continue on Sunday.

BREXIT deal? - NOT amateur radio

Time is running out. Several have said this is crunch week. Both the EU and UK say they want to forge a deal, but both sides seem not to want to compromise. Surely there is a way.

BREXIT trade deal? - NOT amateur radio

Now, not being a politician, I have no idea what is really happening between th EU and UK on a post-BREXIT trade deal. 

However, I expect both sides are playing bluff to see who blinks first. Time is getting short and it is time for brinkmanship to be replaced by compromise on both sides. A good trade deal is in everyone's interest.

Exchange rate against the euro - NOT amateur radio

At the moment, the pound is appreciating in value against the euro. This may be just a blip or it may be sustained. 

The big unanswered question is will there be a trade deal. I hope so, as this is in the interests of the UK and EU. Expect some brinkmanship in the next few weeks! If the UK leaves without a deal I think this would be the height of stupidity. Having said that, nothing would surprise me with Boris, the UK Prime Minister. He has some very similar traits to Donald Trump.

UK-EU trade deal? - NOT amateur radio

At the moment, everyone's mind and the media is focused on Covid-19. It will soon be on the presidential election in the USA. 

Also going on are the post BREXIT trade deal talks between the EU and the UK. It is in both parties interest to arrive at a good deal for both sides. I am pretty sure both sides have been waiting for the other side to blink. 

What is now needed is a bit of compromise and a good outcome for all. I am puzzled why this should be so hard. The UK wants to stand as an independent nation and the EU has its own ways. As a big trading nation and trading partner for the EU, surely something can be worked out.

BREXIT - NOT amateur radio

If you turn on the news on the UK TV or radio, you will almost certainly hear something about Covid-19. It is almost like BREXIT is not happening. 

Behind the scenes, both sides actually want a deal, despite this actually not looking like this. Those in the EU are holding out for the best deal. 

In the very end we can expect some face-saving deal that will be appear good for both sides. A no deal outcome would not be good for either the UK or EU nations.

BREXIT - NOT amateur radio

With Covid-19, people have rather lost track of the trade deal negotiations between the EU and UK. Any trade deal has to be agreed before the year end. At the moment we seem some way from agreement with both sides hanging out for the best deal for them.

In the end, I am sure both sides want a trade deal. It is a case of who blinks first! 

I hope in the end both sides accept compromise and both are able to feel it is fair. The EU does a lot of trade with the UK and vice versa.

BREXIT - NOT amateur radio

This Friday, the UK will no longer be in the EU. It has been a member for 47 years, after being famously blocked by General de Gaulle in 1963.  We eventually joined in the 1970s.  It will be a difficult year ahead with trade negotiations with the EU and other countries.

I have mixed feelings. There is a lot wrong with the EU and I feel the EU will be much weaker without the UK. On the whole, I favoured staying in the EU and trying to get change from within.

Having left, it is up to the UK to forge its place in the world. I hope we maintain close trading ties with the EU. That was why we joined in the first place. Federal Europe was never, as far as I know, ever in our thinking.

See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51287430

BREXIT - NOT amateur radio

At the end of next week the UK officially leaves the EU. In the transition year ahead not much should change.  In the UK-EU trade negotiations, I hope both sides work constructively to forge a good relationship. We are still Europeans and it is surely in both parties interest to work for a good outcome.

BREXIT - NOT amateur radio

Whatever your views on BREXIT are we can all agree on one thing: it has taken a very long time! In the 2016 referendum I voted narrowly to stay, despite there being a lot wrong with the EU. I thought it was better to fight for change from inside the EU than from outside.

We narrowly voted to leave and we do this at the end of January, although there is quite a long period when things won't change much. Getting a good trade deal with the EU is likely to be harder than many expect: the EU will not want us to have a favourable arrangement outside of the "club". At the same time, they will want our trade. At the moment, the UK Pound is quite reasonable against the Euro.

The longer term outlook for the UK economy is hard to discern.  We could do well, but it is hard to know.

BREXIT - not amateur radio

With a probable election in the UK on December 12th, it is anyone's guess what will happen regarding BREXIT.

If the Conservatives manage to get a big majority they will probably try to get their current withdrawal agreement passed into law.

If the Labour party gets to form the next government they will probably go for a new, softer, withdrawal agreement and probably push for a people's vote (referendum) to either approve this or remain in the EU.

If the Lib Dems win then BREXIT will be cancelled and we will remain in the EU.

Somehow I cannot see the BREXIT party doing well. They may have some followers, but if they stand against Conservatives they could lose the seat to Lib Dems or Labour.

Like many, I personally favour remaining in the EU or a much softer form of BREXIT. After 3.5 years, like many, I am tired of BREXIT! Years ago we joined a common market. That is what we have always wanted, plain and simple: nothing more and nothing less.

Personally, I doubt if this UK election will make matters clearer.

UK Election and BREXIT - NOT amateur radio

This could be a momentous week in UK politics. Firstly on Monday, only if passed with a two-thirds majority, we could have a General Election on December 12th. On October 31st we are meant to be leaving the EU.

Somehow, I suspect neither will happen.

BREXIT deal near? - NOT amateur radio

The UK pound continues to appreciate in value against the euro. It seems the currency markets have already assumed a deal will be done, even if there are delays. I am not sure if this is or is not good for the UK, but many will prefer certainty.

BREXIT and the DUP

At the moment the latest deal done with the EU by Boris Johnson may not get through the UK House of Commons without the support of the Northern Ireland DUP party.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arlene_Foster

BREXIT deal slipping away? - NOT amateur radio

Frantic last minute BREXIT discussions are continuing, but meanwhile the clock ticks. Is a deal for the UK to leave the EU about to happen? I think both sides want a deal, but they are finding the precise words of a legal agreement hard to find.

BREXIT deal coming? - NOT amateur radio

Although it is hard to tell, I get the feeling that the UK and EU are struggling to reach a last minute deal.

The UK leaving the EU without a deal would be messy and almost certainly not good for the UK or the EU. No doubt we will find out more this week. Likewise, further delay cannot be good.

UPDATE 1244z:  The UK pound has been falling all morning. I guess the markets are scared of a no-deal this week.

BREXIT rabbits? - NOT amateur radio

Unless there is a metaphorical rabbit about to be pulled out of a hat, I think the UK Prime Minister is about to see the total annihilation of the Conservative Party and a General Election. At the moment I think a BREXIT deal seems unlikely.

We are in totally uncharted waters in the UK and no-one knows what the next few weeks will bring.

BREXIT non-deal - NOT amateur radio

At the moment the rest of the world must look at the UK as a right bunch of idiots. It seems highly improbable we will get a deal in the next few days and most must look on us as a bunch of dimwits.  It is hardly surprising as we look like a bunch of turkeys voting for Christmas.

Yes, we want the EU to reform and, yes, the EU is terrified of the institution falling apart if others see us getting a good deal. At the moment I see both the UK Parliament and the UK people deeply split over BREXIT. Healing these wounds could take years. UK politics feels fractured.

At one time we would have compromised. This seems very unlikely.