UK economy - NOT amateur radio

In the last few hours the Bank of England has produced revised predictions for the UK economy. Although the fall-out from Covid-19 will have grave consequences for the whole of the world, the predictions of the UK are not quite as dire as they once were. Yes, the dip into recession will be bad and the recovery slower, but things could have been much graver. It says something when a dip of 9.5% in economic activity is considered good news!

UK post Covid-19 - NOT amateur radio

The whole world is having a great shock with this virus. In the 1600s maybe, but in the 21st century?

The expectation is that we will have the deepest recession, probably for a century. We will be in uncharted territory. With stimulus measures some countries may be able to claw back to near normality. Left to purely market forces, many will be very vulnerable.

I suspect long supply chains and "just in time" policies driven by ever lower prices will be ditched in the interests of supply security. Many retail businesses will close for ever and more of us will continue to shop online. I suspect flying will be rarer with higher prices and fewer leisure trips.

We are in for a difficult few years. I hope most governments can stimulate their economies to ease the pain.

Calm before the storm? - NOT amateur radio

At the moment the FT100 UK stock index is holding up OK. With the growing tensions between Iran and the USA why do I have the feeling this is the calm before the storm?

It would not surprise me if we are on the verge of a huge recession.  The world is still far too dependent on middle eastern oil. That and BREXIT and we have interesting times ahead.

Sadly, I do not trust the statesmanship of Trump. Kennedy in the 1962 Cuba crisis, yes.

See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-48661843