Every few weeks I take a peek to judge the activity level. My last look was mid afternoon in Europe on a Sunday, when activity is likely to be good. Yet again, there were few stations and plenty of space.
Judging by the activity levels, I cannot see another geosynchronous satellite happening soon. This underlines to me that the Amateur Radio Service is no longer about self training and research. Instead, most would appear to be "black box" operators. Getting on Oscar 100 is just too hard for most. Instead, many spend thousands on a rig, linear, tower and beam.
I can see the hobby dying out as many people age and no longer buy Japanese "black boxes". Maybe before 2040?
See https://eshail.batc.org.uk/nb/
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