Sunspots and 10m

Sunspot number is 111 today but 10m propagation is "fair". I never understand the forecasts! I have already been copied in Australia many times today running 500mW on 10m WSPR. It often seems the best 10m conditions occur when 10m is forecast to be "fair" rather than "good". Don't ask me why! 10m is a band filled with surprises.