Have we passed the solar minimum?

At least one forecast seems quite confident that we have now passed through the sunspot minimum and are starting the climb to the next peak in a few years' time. This forecast has been pointing to an upturn for some while now. Some forecasts point to a much later minimum.

Unless things have changed, the last forecast suggested a peak similar in magnitude to cycle 24. This was quite a weak peak, but at least a peak and not a Maunder Minimum. Back in the 1600s there were virtually no sunspots for 70 years.

At the moment, it is hard to see the signs! Maybe in 6 months we can be more confident.

See https://www.solen.info/solar/images/cycles23_24.png
See http://www.arrl.org/news/noaa-updates-solar-cycle-25-prediction

Updated solar data

My favourite solar data source has been updated. As far as I can see it still shows that we have passed the solar minimum.

If we see another month like last month maybe the predictions will change. If things improve this could mean last month was just a blip. Time will tell.

That solar minimum - or is it?

We have had several weeks now with no sunspots. As I mentioned before the "experts" seem divided about when the solar minimum will be. One forecast thinks we have already passed the minimum whereas another thinks we have several years to go still! Only time will tell. In another year we will be able to discern a trend. Luckily bands like 10m are being livened up with Es propagation.

Latest solar predictions

As you can see, this site is still predicting the minimum has been passed. If you access the blog via https you may not be able to see the image. In which case try here. 

Once we are definitely over the minimum the climb up the slope is quite rapid.

Solar minimum

So the experts disagree! This sounds like BREXIT. One prediction thinks the solar minimum could further deepen. Another thinks we are already past!

See http://southgatearc.org/news/2019/april/solar-minimum-will-be-long-and-deep-experts-predict.htm#.XLCd5PZFy00