FT8 in the quiet years

It seems odd to be talking about the "quiet years" when solar conditions are so good. 

However, in about 5 years' time there will be few sunspots and many will (wrongly) assume the higher HF bands are dead.

In many cases this is not the case and a casual listen around 27MHz will prove this is due to a lack of activity and not poor conditions. 

Hopefully FT8 users will stick around on bands like 10m, 12m and 15m and prove the bands are open far more often than is assumed. I well remember working a surprised LU when I was running 10m SSB QRP when there were no sunspots at all at sunspot minimum some years ago. 

FT8 is well monitored and works with very weak signals. Who knows by then we may have an even better mode!

In my experience, N-S paths remain open for DX at all points in the solar cycle. I agree you have to be more patient, but that is half the fun.

Have we passed the solar minimum?

At least one forecast seems quite confident that we have now passed through the sunspot minimum and are starting the climb to the next peak in a few years' time. This forecast has been pointing to an upturn for some while now. Some forecasts point to a much later minimum.

Unless things have changed, the last forecast suggested a peak similar in magnitude to cycle 24. This was quite a weak peak, but at least a peak and not a Maunder Minimum. Back in the 1600s there were virtually no sunspots for 70 years.

At the moment, it is hard to see the signs! Maybe in 6 months we can be more confident.

See https://www.solen.info/solar/images/cycles23_24.png
See http://www.arrl.org/news/noaa-updates-solar-cycle-25-prediction

Updated solar data

My favourite solar data source has been updated. As far as I can see it still shows that we have passed the solar minimum.

If we see another month like last month maybe the predictions will change. If things improve this could mean last month was just a blip. Time will tell.

That solar minimum - or is it?

We have had several weeks now with no sunspots. As I mentioned before the "experts" seem divided about when the solar minimum will be. One forecast thinks we have already passed the minimum whereas another thinks we have several years to go still! Only time will tell. In another year we will be able to discern a trend. Luckily bands like 10m are being livened up with Es propagation.

Latest solar predictions

As you can see, this site is still predicting the minimum has been passed. If you access the blog via https you may not be able to see the image. In which case try here. 

Once we are definitely over the minimum the climb up the slope is quite rapid.

Solar minimum

So the experts disagree! This sounds like BREXIT. One prediction thinks the solar minimum could further deepen. Another thinks we are already past!

See http://southgatearc.org/news/2019/april/solar-minimum-will-be-long-and-deep-experts-predict.htm#.XLCd5PZFy00