Is Russia in trouble?

The Russians have published figures which downgrade the growth in the Russian economy. Structural weakness?

Is Russia hurting?

 The indicators appear to be indicating this?

Russian Rouble

 It looks like the Russian Rouble could fall heavily this year as Russian oil sales fall . 

With the war against Iran by the USA and Israel, we could be in for a rough ride in the world in the months ahead. Maybe this will help Russia?

Russian losses in the war with Ukraine

 This war has been going on now for 4 long years and is now entering the 5th with no clear end in sight. It would seem President Putin is trying recreate the USSR and does not see Ukraine as a legitimate state. He has shown no willingness to stop the fighting.

Russia-Ukraine conflict

This has now been going on for 4 years.

No nation is perfect, but I really wish this would end fairly and end soon.  

My worry is the USA will just walk away.  Clearly Europe is concerned about President Putin's aims beyond Ukraine, for example in the Baltic and Finland.  At one time an attack on one NATO nation was the same as an attack on all NATO members and was a strong deterrent. Would the USA join? 

The Ukrainian people have put up a stalwart defence.

Ukraine

I watch quite a few videos about the Ukraine and Russia. Most say that inside Russia things are getting very hard, and now even harder with falling oil prices. 

It would appear (outwardly at least) that Putin wants a new Russian Empire. He sees the destruction of Ukraine as a separate nation as something worth fighting for.  The fall of Russia internally seems to be very slow in happening.

If the USA is pulled out of supporting Ukraine, I think the wrong message will be sent to the world that bullying succeeds.

Bullies?

It appears to me that Ukraine is "between a rock and a hard place". 

It looks like they are being offered a very poor deal over their heads by Russia and the USA. 

If they do not accept the USA is likely to stop intelligence sharing and just walk away.

The world seems to be run by selfish individuals who are more interested in their own enrichment rather than that of their citizens. 

Where are the leaders who put the interests of the common person ahead of rich billionaires?

More from Times Radio

This video was on YouTube earlier.  It includes a piece about the disappearance of Sergei Lavrov who is the Russia Foreign Minister who seems to have "dropped off the radar" in recent weeks. Apparently he is very bright and has been a real supporter of President Putin of Russia.

Is Russia heading for recession?

With oil prices falling and increasing sanctions causing China and India to think twice before buying Russian oil (its major export) there is a danger of the Russian economy being in serious trouble.

YouTube videos

There are huge numbers of videos on YouTube. Many people now watch YouTube on TV which is a recent change. 

Whatever your interest, you are almost certain to find a video. If you do a search I can almost guarantee you will find something. 

Last night we watched a video about transport in the time of Queen Victoria in the UK. This was on the TV.

If you want videos about Russia I have found TimesRadio and Joe Blogs videos informative.

Is Russia in deep trouble?

Apparently OPEC+ has agreed to increase production still further, which is likely to result in a further fall in oil price per barrel. Also Ukraine drone strikes have been targeted at Russian oil processing leading to shortages at pumps. As Russia depends heavily on oil exports, this could really hurt.

Working Russian stations

If you are old enough, you will remember working lots of stations in the old USSR. We were able to share our hobby on equal terms with people who were really the same as us. 

I feel the same now about Russia. I hate that they invaded Ukraine, but I hope that via amateur radio we can all share our common humanity. Incidentally, one of my old neighbours was Russian and nicer person you could never meet.  Since leaving work, I have had regular contact with a Russian who has always been the same.

Russia and Ukraine - NOT amateur radio

 After all this time, I am completely puzzled why Russia is doing the damage it is on Ukraine. For many years to come the Ukrainian people will hate Russia, as will much of the world. Surely this is not productive. All this wanton destruction seems so pointless. Why don't we concentrate on real threats rather than waste all this money on destroying things?

What happens next in Russia? - NOT amateur radio

This is being written on Sunday afternoon and a lot can change very fast. My own reading of the situation is this:

1. Apparently there was a half-hearted attempt at a coup by someone that at one time was close to Putin.
2. When this started Putin was worried about being overthrown. At the time there was talk of treason and backstabbing.
3. Very soon the leader of this coup backed down. He was promised no charges for him and his men if he went to Belarus, the leader of which sides with Putin.  This is all very odd.
4. It is unclear how this will pan out. We could see at least 3 outcomes: 
1. Putin becomes even more tight in his grip on power and purges those around him he sees as a threat.
2. Putin is overthrown either by someone who is even worse or more liberal.
3. There could be a lurch back towards communism by the people.

It is a brave man that predicts how this will end, but most think it has weakened Putin.  One thing is clear: this has not ended. It may appear to have for now, but what happens next?

In the meantime we just carry on.

Russia and Google - NOT amateur radio

The BBC reports that Russia has fined Google for spreading "fake news" about the "special operation" in Ukraine. Outside Russia it is called war, although by tight control of the media, most Russians are unaware.

I am puzzled why Russia is carrying out such aggression against people who (were) so close. It is clear that most in Ukraine hate Russia now and Mr Putin has even more countries now wanting to join NATO. Such aggression has no place in the 21st century.

Why?

See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62214564 .

New world order? - NOT amateur radio

With the recent invasion of  Ukraine by Russia, it suddenly feels that the world order is changing. 

Now, I know that there are always 2 sides to any stories in the propaganda circulated in the run-up to wars and we in the west are not prefect. 

However, I am concerned that many in Russia and Ukraine would much prefer not to have wars,  destruction and loss of lives. This is especially true when many have relatives in the other country. Why can't peace prevail?

I also worry about Belarus. If its leader decides to try to attack any of the Baltic states that are NATO members, then by the articles of the treaty, all NATO members are being attacked.

What about China and Taiwan?

No, the balance of power is changing and it will impact the lives of our children and grandchildren.

All I ask is that we all try to live at peace with our neighbours.

Interesting that there we're several people on 40m FT8 sending "CQ STOPTHE WAR" and "CQ ST0PPUTIN". 

Let history judge. 

More amateur satellites

According to Southgate News a recent Soyuz (Russian) launch has placed more amateur satellites into orbit.

See http://russianspaceweb.com/kanopus-v5-v6.html

Russia flexing muscles? - NOT amateur radio

Well, I guess this happens quite a lot. No doubt we don't hear about UK and USA jets nearing Russian airspace!  Remember the U2 spy plane? No doubt the USA, China and Russia have plenty of high resolution spy satellites that we hear nothing about.

Like in any war or cold war, don't believe all you read as it is likely to be rather one-sided. During the Vietnam War we all believed the USA was whiter than white. History tells us otherwise. It is often a good idea to check news from several sources, preferably from sources other than just western media.

See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-42697065/uk-jets-intercept-russian-bombers-near-uk-airspace

Cyber attacks - NOT amateur radio

From my own limited experience, I know cyber attacks are a real threat.

According to the BBC the UK Foreign Secretary is to warn Russia that the UK will retaliate if the Russians are guilty of cyber attacks that threaten national security. I am sure most governments have a "dirty tricks" department. Some get caught. It is the nature of 21st century warfare.

See www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42450479 .

Probing again? - NOT amateur radio

Yet again, 3 of my blogs have seen exceptional activity for a third day and yet again this coincides with much increased views from Russia. I have no problem with people from any country who genuinely are interested, but this looks like bots probing. Highly suspicious.