Solar Cycle 25

Let me start by saying I have not seen any very recent predictions.

The last I saw suggested the next minimum would be next year (2019) and cycle 25 would be similar to cycle 24. If you are aware of later, credible forecasts, please let us know.

Predicting how the sun will behave in the future is getting better, but the truth is no-one really knows. At best, these are educated guesses. For example, see the link below, which is full of journalistic hyperbolae and even managed to mix up the minimum between the last 2 cycles! Written by a student?

See https://www.universetoday.com/139833/are-we-witnessing-the-start-of-solar-cycle-25/

Solar cycle 25 predictions

This quote is from http://www.solen.info/solar/polarfields/polar.html

"As of July 2018 the strength of the polar fields hints at a cycle 25 with a magnitude slightly stronger than that of cycle 24."

In a few years we will have a better idea. I hope they are right!

See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_25 . At the moment this doesn't say a lot, but I expect it will soon say a lot more.

Cycle 25 hope?

"As of July 2018 the strength of the polar fields hints at a cycle 25 with a magnitude slightly stronger than that of cycle 24."

The above was on http://www.solen.info/solar/ . We live in hope!

2 years to next minimum

Recent relatively high sunspot numbers may lead hopeful souls to think cycle 24 has ended and we are starting cycle 25. Sorry to be the bringer of bad news, but it looks like we have another 2 years until the next minimum according to http://www.solen.info/solar/. It looks like the recent improvement is temporary.  No, I think 2019 and 2020 will pass before we see any real signs of things getting better. All the forecasts suggest cycle 25 will be quite poor.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/images/comparison_recent_cycles.png .

Solar cycle 25

All the predictions that I have seen point to a peak not better than the last one, and possibly lower. In recent weeks we have seen a slight improvement in solar flux and sunspot numbers. However, do not get your hopes up. The minimum is probably 2019 or 2020 and this may just be a small "blip". On average, expect things to get worse for a few years yet. Of course, the 11 years for a solar cycle is just an average, so we might start the next solar cycle sooner or later.

HF Conditions

As mentioned yesterday, the next solar peak is likely to be similar to the last one, although these are just educated guesses at this stage. In a few years time, we may have a better idea.

Es is often a good second best and some really long paths are worked on 6m every year by Es. 6m JT65 was very good last year and this year 6m FT8 should be worth a try.

See https://sites.google.com/site/g3xbmqrp3/hf/hfcondx

That elusive sunspot cycle 25

We still have a few years to run before cycle 24 ends (around 2020), but already there are new cycle 25 spots appearing. These are high latitude spots and only clear to those who know.

The "experts" seem to be saying cycle 25 will be similar to cycle 24. As with all these things experts are often wrong and it may be several more years before we get more meaningful predictions. I hope I am around to see it.

Predictions for the next sunspot maximum

Forecasting the next solar peak is hard, but some have tried. Most experts don't expect much, but two have said they expect cycle 25 to be similar to cycle 24. In reality, we do not know! One thing we do know - unless I am very lucky, the next "peak" is the last I am likely to experience. Even the peak of cycle 25 is not certain for me!

See https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/02/09/forecast-for-solar-cycle-25/
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_25
See http://solarcyclescience.com/forecasts.html

Sunspot Cycle 25

Sunspots with the correct polarity for cycle 25 (the next cycle) are already starting to appear. The next minimum is likely to be 2018-2020 and the forecasts for the next maximum are not great.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/cycles1_to_present.html

The next solar maximum

"A monthly smoothed maximum number of 62 is derived for Solar Cycle 25. This would probably be around 2025. This is almost down to Dalton Mimimum values."

Basically, not great! We had better get used to it.

See https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/21/solar-cycle-25-amplitude-prediction/

Cycle 25

We are approaching the next solar minimum. Opinions vary on the next peak, but most seem to agree it will not be great. Thank goodness for digital modes which allow us to make the best of poor conditions. Es, which peaks in May, June and July in the northern hemisphere, is often as good or better when F layer propagation is poor.  Es DX can be spectacular.

See http://spaceweather.com/

Solar cycle 25 - what will it be like?

"As of April 2017 the strength and trend of the southern polar field hints at a cycle 25 with a magnitude close to that of cycle 24. " 

This was a quote from http://www.solen.info/solar/.  It is expected to be a weak affair. If anyone knows of a better forecast please let me know. As it will probably be my last, I hope it is better than cycle 24, although I think this is unlikely.

What will solar cycle 25 be like?

The brief answer is no-one knows. Some have predicted a long period without sunspots but some have suggested the peak could be similar to cycle 24.

In truth, we'll have to wait and see. It seems probable we are unlikely to see the massive peaks that some of us remember. If we see a peak at all, it is likely to be a modest affair.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/.
See https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/21/solar-cycle-25-amplitude-prediction/
See http://spaceweather.com/ .

First sunspot of cycle 25 spotted

Now, please don't get excited as the peak (such as it will be) is years and years away but there are reports of the first sunspot of the new cycle spotted. This has a different polarity to those of cycle 24.

See http://qrznow.com/fast-solar-solar-wind-first-sunspot-of-a-new-cycle/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Solar cycle 25?

We are on the way down to the end of cycle 24, with the minimum expected around 2020. Already the experts are predicting what cycle 25 will be like, and solar activity is likely to be poor. Some are even predicting a Maunder Minimum with no sunspots at all for several years and a drop in global temperatures. The truth is we cannot be sure.

The world is warming up, fact, although some think this is not the fault of man. Somehow, I think we are involved. We owe it to future generations to look at the facts and not behave like ostriches. A Maunder Minimum might buy us a little extra time to put things right.

See https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/25/first-estimate-of-solar-cycle-25-amplitudesmallest-in-over-300-years/ .

Whatever your views, equip yourselves with FACTS as much as possible.

What will solar cycle 25 look like?

We now seem to be, on average, on the downward slope to the next solar minimum. Some are predicting that the next peak will be almost a non-event with the sunspot number peak of just 7. Of course no-one really knows, but I think it is true that most experts now think cycle 25 will be very poor. Conditions on LF/MF are likely to improve but decent F2 propagation on 10m is likely to be rare, except perhaps with N-S paths over the equator.  What is certain is no-one is really sure. Summer Es could well be the dominant DX mode on the higher HF bands.

UPDATE 2048z:  I have now gone QRT (for the night) on 10m but I will be on 160m now and overnight. Back on 10m tomorrow morning after breakfast.

Solar data and 60m

As we move off the peak of sunspot cycle 24, it is useful to look at how things are progressing. It will be a few years still before conditions really hit rock bottom, but the progression to a solar minimum is usually faster than the climb from the minimum up to the next maximum.

I have not checked the very recent opinions of experts, but they were predicting that solar cycle 25 would be a dismal affair. This is one reason why a world-wide contiguous 60m band would be so useful. It would be a mix of 80m and 40m propagation - VERY useful in the quieter years to come.This will be discussed at WRC2015 late next year but we have no idea what the outcome will be. Even if allocated to the Amateur Service, it could be several years before it is made available to us. So, even if allocated, it could be 2018 or 2019 before we could use this new contiguous allocation. Of course, we may never get it at all!

In the meantime see http://www.solen.info/solar/ for solar data.

Solar Cycle 25 Predictions

It has been notoriously hard to predict future solar cycles, but the science is improving all the time. Right now, the experts are predicting that solar cycle 25 will be very small indeed. Some think we are moving towards another Maunder Minimum when solar sunspots all but vanish for around 50 years. If so, most of us alive now will never experience "good" HF conditions ever again in our lifetimes. Experts can be wrong!

See http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/25/first-estimate-of-solar-cycle-25-amplitudesmallest-in-over-300-years/  .

On a positive note, poor solar activity often means the lower frequency bands are better. With some luck, we may have a new international contiguous band at 60m in a few years' time. This depends on WRC2015.

Regarding cycle 24, it looks like the peak was Feb 2014.
See http://www.solen.info/solar/  .