A blip? - NOT amateur radio

In the last few weeks to UK pound has appreciated by around 6 Eurocents against the Euro. This may, of course, just be a blip. In the long-term, especially once the uncertainty over Brexit is over, I think the UK Pound will strengthen against the Euro considerably. This is my view, and I am no expert.

Fundamentally, I believe the Euro is flawed and there is really no resolution in sight for it main structural issues. Once the UK leaves the EU they will have fewer rich nations to fund the EU coffers. No, the EU is a bit like the curate's egg i.e. "good in parts". If only the members of the EU had given the UK more ground on controlling free movement we'd probably still be inside. Hoisted by their own petard?

I think a lot of the EU's stance is "sour grapes". The UK will be fine outside of the EU and they know it.

Wrong? - NOT amateur radio

Many times I have said that I am most definitely not a financial expert.

My gut told me that the UK Pound would appreciate against the Euro. At the moment the exchange rate is worse than at any time in the last year. So, if you followed my advice you would be completely wrong! I am only going on gut feelings.

My gut still tells me that I will be right, but only time will tell.

UK Pound against the Euro - NOT amateur radio

My prediction was that the UK Pound would appreciate against the Euro later this year. At the moment it is getting weaker!

I am no expert, but still believe that the Euro will weaken. I am definitely not a financial expert and this is more of a hunch than science.

Pound to Euro exchange rate - NOT amateur radio

Some time ago I predicted that the UK Pound would strengthen against the Euro before then end of the year. At the moment it is weaker. Only time will tell.

My assumption was the Euro still has problems especially with Greece and fewer "rich" contributors once the UK leaves the EU. As I said before, I am no financial expert and may be totally wrong.

Most of the burden will be on France and Germany, both of whom want the EU to succeed. If Greece defaults Germany will be most hurt.

Pound against the Euro - NOT amateur radio

It is a year this week since the UK voted to leave the EU. I voted to remain.

It is my view that the Euro will lose value soon, probably this year. The UK was a major contributor to the EU finances and we will be missed. The Euro problems have not gone away, particularly Greece. Yes, the UK may be hurt in the short-term, but I cannot see this lasting.

Despite BREXIT, I am expecting the UK pound to gain value against the Euro, possibly as soon as this year. As I have said before, I could be completely wrong!

UK Pound - NOT amateur radio

The UK pound seems to be gaining ground against most major currencies including the euro and the US dollar. BREXIT talks are at an early stage, but talk of a UK pound "melt-down" seems premature.

See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/default.stm

UK Pound against Euro - NOT amateur radio

Yet again, the UK pound is stronger against the euro. Some were expecting it to tumble. The last time I looked it was up another 0.5%. Early BREXIT days. but my gut feeling is the euro will weaken further later this year.

Article 50 and leaving the EU - NOT amateur radio

Article 50, the trigger to leave the EU, has now been invoked, with 2 years ahead to negotiate our exit from the "club".  Although we have some tough decisions and negotiations ahead, the UK pound has not collapsed. If anything it is a little stronger against the euro. Although I voted to remain in the EU, I am pretty sure we'll be fine in the UK.  The rest of the EU faces quite difficult times ahead. In truth, Europe needs us as much as we need them.

Euro - NOT amateur radio

For some time, I have predicted that the value of the Euro will fall. It has not happened yet.

When the UK signs Article 50 to formally start exiting the EU I expect the uncertainty may reduce the value of the UK Pound against several currencies, including the Euro. I suspect this will be a blip and by the end of 2017 the Euro will be well down against the UK Pound and US Dollar.

Not being a monetary expert, I could be totally wrong, but to me the EU is like a pressure cooker. The pressure (for change) is increasing and at some point this will hit crisis point.

I voted to "remain" in the UK referendum but I fail to see how the Euro (or the whole EU) can last without big changes. To me, the pressure for change is growing ever stronger. The German economy has most to lose.

UK Pound to Euro exchange rate - NOT amateur radio

It is my view that the Euro will lose value this year so the UK Pound will buy more Euros. Of course, I could be entirely wrong! The reasons for thinking this are:

• Greek debt is still a big issue and there will be fewer nations able to bail them out.
• Several nations are disillusioned with the Euro project and are worried by totally free movement within the EU.
• Several nations are in favour of tariff-free borders to trade but are nervous of ever closer integration.
• I think the UK will show the world it can succeed outside of the EU.

No, several things point to an improved exchange rate. As for the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen exchange rates, I am less clear.

By the way, in last year's EU referendum I voted to "remain" in the EU. I believe the EU faces a difficult year ahead and this year will be "crunch time".

The UK Pound - NOT amateur radio

At the moment the pound is holding up fairly well against the Yen, Euro and the US Dollar. OK, it dropped following the BREXIT vote but, for now, it is not falling. What happens when Article 50 is triggered is anyone's guess. My guess is the Euro will lose value this year. Against the Dollar and Yen I am uncertain how the pound will do.

UK Pound UP - NOT amateur radio

Since the Prime Minister clarified our position on leaving the EU following the BREXIT vote, I see that the UK pound is up against every currency. I guess people had already factored in that we are leaving the EU and are happy to have some certainty.

Although I have said this before, it would not surprise me at all if the Euro lost a lot of value this year. The EU is in grave danger of falling apart. We may be the first to vote to leave, but we will not be the last.

OK, I voted to "remain" in the EU, but think many nations want free trade but not a United States of Europe. Originally the EU was about maintaining peace in Europe but it has grown a lot in recent years and has rather lost its way.

Free trade? Yes.
Uncontrolled immigration? No.
U.S.E.? No.

Unless the EU changes, it is in grave danger.

See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/default.stm .

BREXIT and the UK pound - NOT amateur radio

The UK pound has fallen since BREXIT although perhaps not as far as some expected. It could fall further, especially if a "hard BREXIT" becomes more probable.

I am no financial expert but I could imagine the euro losing a lot of its value in 2017. The Eurozone has some hard times ahead: Greece is very unlikely ever to be able to pay off its debts. There are strong right wing (anti EU) forces in many European nations. It would not surprise me to see the euro tumble. I may be very wrong, but the signs are there.

As for the UK, I think in the end we will be OK. I voted "remain", but there is a lot wrong with the EU. There is a lot wrong with the euro too: the idea is right but all nations need to be in step and abiding by the same rules as if they are in one nation. Greece should never have adopted the euro in my view.

See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/default.stm .

Exchange rates - NOT amateur radio

See https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/currencies/investing.html for how the UK pound is fairing against other currencies. Although I voted to remain in the EU, I can see the Euro weakening in the next 18 months. The UK (a big contributor to the EU pot) is leaving, the Greeks have little prospect of ever repaying their debts and there is a general sentiment that the EU is dated and holding back its members.There is no doubt that the UK will have a difficult few years, but the EU is in for a rough time too.

The UK Pound - NOT amateur radio

At the moment, the UK pound seems to have stabilised since we voted to leave the EU. The value (about 10% lower) should work in favour of exporters, although less so if their raw materials are imported.

Imports become more expensive. Does this mean we will buy more UK food like UK bacon? Much of our food is imported. We could eat more UK grown food and this would help our balance of payments.

See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/default.stm .