Weather forecasts - NOT amateur radio

So, if you do not like "grumpy old man" rants look away.

Yesterday, the BBC weather forecast had heavy clouds and a 70% chance of rain. The Met Office forecast said dry, sunny and light clouds. In the end I cut my front lawn and hedge yesterday afternoon.

OK, I know the UK weather is hard to predict, but honestly, you simply could not use the forecasts as they were so different.

This morning it was supposed to be dark clouds and thunder. We had light cloud, sun and warm!

It bugs me that we simply do not know. I reckon they have a phone call and say, "you say this and we'll say that. One of us is bound to be right".😀

Local weather forecasts - NOT amateur radio

The UK weather Met Office forecasts feature a lot in my "grumpy old man" posts.

Having been on a 20 week U3A course on "Weather and Climate" I know it is hard. But honestly!!

Just an HOUR ago the Met Office reckoned it was dry here all afternoon and evening with a 10% chance of precipitation. Now they are saying light showers all afternoon. Well, actually they probably now say snow or thunder as I've not looked for 10 minutes.😖

UK Weather - NOT amateur radio

At my recent U3AC course in Cambridge on "Weather and Climate" we always started the sessions with the Met Office surface pressure charts. These can be animated so you can see the pressure map and fronts coming our way over the following few days.

See https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1522108800

Actually there is a lot more data on the Met Office site, which is worth exploring.

Cold snap - NOT amateur radio

OK, I know our friends in the USA and Canada will be having a laugh, but apparently we are in for a cold snap in the UK with a good chance of snow in the east. This is all due to a big high pressure system out east feeding Siberian cold winds in the direction of the UK.

We seem to get few really cold snaps these days with little snow. Although this winter has been colder than for a while, it is nothing like 1947 and 1963 when it was very cold and snowy for months.

There is little doubt that the climate is changing and generally things are getting warmer, even if we do get a cold spell now for a while.

See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43167583 .

UK Weather Forecasts - NOT amateur radio

Living where we do, forecasting the UK weather is a thankless task.

Every few hours, it seems, the Met Office, complete with its super-computers, satellites, radiosondes and remote weather stations needs to change the forecast. Personally, it seems the only reliable forecast is to look out of the window and see if it is raining!

We have friends over for lunch today and the forecast has changed so many times this week as to be totally useless. The only reliable thing you can say about UK weather forecasts is they are likely to be wrong and never, ever, plan an outdoor event on the basis of a UK weather forecast.

Yes, I know we are at a complex point where weather systems meet, but please let us not pretend we can forecast. Clearly we cannot.  Chaos theory reigns!

UPDATE 1140z: Guess what? The forecast has changed yet again for early afternoon!

New Weather App (free) - NOT amateur radio

Those who know me know that I have little faith in the UK weather forecasts from the Met Office. Quite often the local forecast for now is wrong! There is a new (free) app that might be useful. My thanks go to Richard Fusniak for bringing this to my attention.

See http://www.anglia.ac.uk/news/app-can-help-banish-those-barbecue-blues .

Another hot day ahead - NOT amateur radio

This is a surprise! For a second day in a row, we had breakfast in the garden. It is already hot. For us in the UK this is exceptional. Even in the shade it was warm even at 8.30am. My wife as just been for a walk and says it is very hot.

Enjoying the sun - NOT amateur radio

We have had a decent few days with a high pressure system overhead. Today, temperatures reached 23- 24 deg C. Tomorrow it is likely to be much cooler and duller. We ate lunch in the garden for a change.

This blackbird was obviously enjoying the good weather. It stayed in this position for quite a while.

Weather forecasts in the UK - NOT amateur radio

OK, people keep telling me how complex and difficult it is to predict the UK weather. But we still buy millions of pounds worth of super-computers so we can do a better job.

Today (this very morning) the local forecast for Burwell and Cambridge both said dull, but dry until after dark. At 2pm this afternoon it rained when I had to walk 0.5 miles in Cambridge. You would expect TODAY's local forecast would be correct!

The only reliable forecast seems to be to look out of the window. Super-computers? Met Office, please spend the money on something more useful and stop pretending. Wet seaweed is a lot less expensive!

Useless Weather Forecasts - NOT amateur radio

At 0830z the Met Office weather forecast for our village said full sun all morning from 0900z. Very very briefly we saw the sun at 1140z. Really, the Met Office weather forecasts are useless. Yes I know weather forecasts in the UK are hard and complex, but surely 30 minutes ahead they can get it better?

Fame at last - NOT amateur radio

One of my photos made the BBC TV this evening! Look East showed the picture of our local windmill next door in a storm on their weather forecast, using my nickname "windymiller". I was quite surprised to see it!

Storms later?

The early weather forecasts suggested we might have thunder here later. If so, I shall go QRT and disconnect everything including rig, PC and antenna. The risk may be low, but I am taking no chances. At the moment all is quiet, but things can soon change.

See http://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en .

UPDATE 1328z:  I have decided to go QRT.

BBQ weather? - NOT amateur radio

Sunset

Last evening we went to some friends for a BBQ. In all, there were 8 people there. This was the sunset over their back garden. It stayed dry, but like the rest of our summer here in the UK, the weather was mixed. Although the BBQ was cooked outside, we ate indoors.

Weather in the UK - NOT amateur radio

We are now in July and certainly here in East Anglia we have had one of the worst summers I can remember so far.  We have had just a few continuous days of sun. Most of the time it has been a mixture of rain, cloud and some sun. In the west of the UK it has been better, but we have had a real absence of high pressure over us with long settled, warm, sunny, weather.

Storms

See www.lightningmaps.org .

I am very sorry folks. About 30 minutes ago I cut my front lawn and now it is really raining very hard.  According to the maps (see link) the thunder and lightning are heading this way. I shall stay on 10m and 6m WSPR for a little while, but I may well have to disconnect things soon.

UPDATE 1715z:  Well, although it rained hard, the storms decided to miss us, so I am still active on 10m and 6m WSPR.

UK Weather Forecasts are Rubbish - NOT amateur radio

OK, I moan about weather forecasts a lot and here I go again. 

Yesterday the forecast for OUR VILLAGE on the day said rain showers all afternoon. It was dry until we went to bed. 

Today OUR VILLAGE was supposed to be dry all day. It is raining! 

If you cannot rely on the forecast for NOW, what IS the point? Before readers tell me how complex our UK weather is may I say, yet again, our forecasts are rubbish.

The only reliable weather forecast in the UK is to look out of the darn window.

Millions have been spent on super-computers to enable better forecasting - oh yes? 

UPDATE 1400z:  Perhaps the best is to look at the forecast and assume the opposite?

Rain - NOT amateur radio

Well, perhaps we have had the good weather for the year!  Our nice dry and warm spell came to an end after dark last night with rain. The big high we had has slipped away and we are now (once again) in a stream of wet and windy weather dominated by low pressure systems. It is not that cold but several degrees lower than the highs we saw in the last few days. The sun has gone.

Part of the rear garden yesterday

Spring late? - NOT amateur radio

Hail on our front lawn

We had a very mild and wet winter followed by a cold spell in February and March. Here we are at the end of April with a wind from the north, 7 deg C, hail, and now thunder! We have had daffodils in flower since the end of November. The weather is crazy! Because of the storm risks, I have disconnected all my amateur radio gear.

There has just been another hail storm and the grass is white!

Dull again - NOT amateur radio

Spring flowers

We have had a mild, wet winter here in East Anglia, UK. There have been more muddy, wet puddles than I can ever recall. I have lived in this part of the UK since 1970.  They were forecasting a very cold winter. Mind you, they said this last year! At some point they will be correct. Most spring flowers came out very early.

It re-enforces my view that the most reliable forecast is to look out of the window! We had rain last night, but I don't think it was forecast.

Weather in the UK - NOT amateur radio

Our village green in winter

Some have been forecasting a very cold winter here. So far, we have had very little frost and lots of dull,wet days. The ground here in East Anglia is wetter than I can ever recall. If we do get a cold snap, this will be the first real snow here for several years. I'd say our weather is changing. East Anglia used to be cold and dry, but not any more.