Sunspots and 10m - Saturday November 12th 2016

Solar flux is 78 today and the sunspot number 26. K=2. Already I am spotting Israel and European Russia on 10m JT65. I have the feeling this is going to be a reasonably good day on 10m JT65. This is more than can be said for the weather here at the moment: it is cold and wet!

Sunspots and 10m - Friday November 11th 2016

Solar flux is 79 today and the sunspot number 13 (was zero yesterday). K=2. On the face of it, similar to Thursday, albeit a little more disturbed.

Solar cycle 25?

We are on the way down to the end of cycle 24, with the minimum expected around 2020. Already the experts are predicting what cycle 25 will be like, and solar activity is likely to be poor. Some are even predicting a Maunder Minimum with no sunspots at all for several years and a drop in global temperatures. The truth is we cannot be sure.

The world is warming up, fact, although some think this is not the fault of man. Somehow, I think we are involved. We owe it to future generations to look at the facts and not behave like ostriches. A Maunder Minimum might buy us a little extra time to put things right.

See https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/25/first-estimate-of-solar-cycle-25-amplitudesmallest-in-over-300-years/ .

Whatever your views, equip yourselves with FACTS as much as possible.

Slowly declining solar conditions

We are now on the gradual slide down the solar cycle to the next minimum. The slide down is usually slower than the climb after the minimum. The experts are not expecting great things of the next maximum. As always, these are averages, so some days can be much better.

Next autumn we should not expect conditions on the higher HF bands to be much good, although I firmly believe 10m is better than people think. OK, you need to hunt for the DX - it is not as easy as a few years ago, but it is there quite often.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/ .

Sunspots and 10m - Friday October 7th 2016

Solar flux is 102 (respectable) and the sunspot number is 55. K=1. The forecast for 10m F2 propagation is "poor".

As I was away, there was no solar forecast yesterday.

Sunspots and 10m - Friday August 5th 2016

Solar flux is 79 today. Sunspot number is zero today (K=3). 10m F2 propagation is yet again "poor".

Sunspots and 10m - Sun May 29th 2016

Solar flux is just 87 today and the sunspot number 31 (K=2). The forecast for 10m F2 propagation remains "poor" today.

Sunspots and 10m - Friday May 20th 2016

Solar flux is 100 today. Sunspot number is 38 (K=1) and the forecast for 10m (F2) propagation remains "poor".

Sunspots and 10m - Fri March 11th 2016

Solar flux is 95 and sunspot number is 61 (K=3) and 10m propagation is again expected to be "poor". We will see how 10m WSPR turns out later. On the face of it, 10m looks like yesterday but with more disturbed conditions, so I am not that hopeful.

Solar data link working

See http://www.solen.info/solar/ .

I was very pleased to find this link worked fine today. I find this site a great resource. I hope others do too. Maybe they had a short-term issue? 

Looking at the data, the smoothed sunspot number has almost halved since the peak. 10m conditions are still quite good on many days though and it is far too soon to give up on the band.

Sunspots and 10m - Dec 24th 2015

Solar flux is 132 and sunspot number is 63 (K=3) today. The propagation forecast today is "fair". There were early winter Es spots from Italy and France on 10m, but this would not be related to solar conditions. As far as I know Es is not related to sunspots. The RA and LZ spots received on 10m are more likely to be single hop F2.

Sunspots and 10m - Thurs Dec 3rd 2015

Solar flux is 94 today and the sunspot number is just 26 today. K=1 and 10m propagation is again expected to remain "poor". I am again not expecting much on 10m WSPR.

It is some days now since my 500mW 10m WSPR beacon was spotted in the USA. Deteriorating conditions are having more of an effect this side of Christmas than I was expecting. I was expecting USA spots most days until late spring. Maybe I was wrong.

Sunspots

The current sunspot count is 158 (good) and 20-30MHz conditions are "normal",  so I'd expect some decent N-S F2 propagation on 10m today. At the moment, I am sticking with MF (472kHz) , but may revert to 10m over the weekend, weather permitting.

We have thunder and lightning possible as the remnants of Hurricane Bertha pass through over the weekend. See http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en .  Currently, the storms are just missing us here in Burwell.

Second peak for cycle 24?

It looks more and more likely that cycle 24 is going to have a second peak with a greater magnitude than that of the first peak of Feb 2012. Today the sunspot count is 150. It will take several months before the smoothed sunspot number is known, but the indicators are good.

Recent excellent conditions on 10m are further evidence of good times. Since home from hospital (Jan 3rd) 10m has been open to N.America every afternoon that I have listened.

As the slope down to the minimum is more gradual than the ascent to the peak(s), we can expect decent HF conditions for a few years to come.

The new peak is not great and we may we be heading to a Maunder Minimum with very little sunspot activity for perhaps 40-50 years. Enjoy these HF conditions while you can  because we may not see them again in our lifetimes.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/ .

UPDATE 1300z:  My first report from the USA (running 2W WSPR) was as early as 1244z, indicating a VERY early 10m stateside opening today at my very low power level.. Conditions remain excellent on 10m.  7088km, not bad.

No new solar maximum?

The latest summary for May 2013 on the Solar Terrestrial Activity Report at http://www.solen.info/solar/ shows that the (smoothed) international sunspot number (SIDC) reached 78.7 in May, some way below the last peak 96.7 back in Nov 2011. There is still a chance that another few months could raise the smoothed sunspot numbers above the Nov 2011 peak. Whatever, if these numbers remain at similar levels into the autumn we will have decent conditions on the higher HF bands.

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png

 

A solar peak in late 2013 and another in 2015?

Some experts at NASA are predicting some strange behaviour in the next few years with the possibility of a twin peak for cycle 24 but with one peak being this year and the other on 2015. A similar twin peak occurred in cycle 14 in the early 1900s.  See http://www.arrl.org/news/solar-cycle-24-may-have-double-peaks-says-nasa-solar-physicist.  If this happens we may have (half) decent conditions for several years yet in this current solar cycle.

Conditions in this peak really are very different from the massive peaks in the middle and late 20th century when worldwide DX was workable with ease on the higher HF bands and even 6m. OK, it is still possible to work all over the world but, believe me, it WAS a lot easier back then.

Solar activity this month

A quick glance at the solar data over the last week or two will convince anyone that things are looking up. Many believe that a second peak, not that uncommon, is likely soon and that this peak will actually turn out to be the real peak of cycle 24. It is some time since we have seen sunspot numbers as high as this for so many days in a row. In the end, the peak is usually based on smoothed sunspot numbers so it will be very many months into the future before we will know if the recent upsurge has helped to make a new smoothed peak.

I see there is a possibility of M or X class flares in the next two days which could affect propagation, although I think it improbable these will be on a scale likely to knock out power stations and satellites. At some future point, most likely long after all of us are long dead and at a time when the cycles return to huge numbers of sunspots, it will happen though. Of course large solar flares can happen at any time, so you never know.

For more data on the recent solar activity see http://www.solen.info/solar/ .

Solar prediction update

NASA has slightly modified its predictions for the current sunspot peak showing the peak month as May 2013 with a 95% prediction of just over 100. The smoothed number will peak later.  Although conditions will gradually deteriorate after the peak, the monthly sunspot number is still expected to be over 60 right until mid 2016. See http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict.txt . The evidence in the short- term looks somewhat less good, but things can change rapidly.

So, get on the air, especially on the higher HF bands and enjoy the good times!

Date/Month 95%   50%     5%

2012  11  96.1  68.7  41.4
2012  12  97.2  69.7  42.1
2013   1  98.2  70.5  42.8
2013   2  99.1  71.2  43.4
2013   3  99.8  71.8  43.9
2013   4 100.4  72.4  44.3
2013   5 100.9  72.8  44.6
2013   6 101.3  73.1  44.9
2013   7 101.6  73.4  45.1
2013   8 101.8  73.5  45.2
2013   9 101.8  73.5  45.2
2013  10 101.8  73.5  45.2
2013  11 101.6  73.3  45.1
2013  12 101.3  73.1  44.9
2014   1 100.9  72.8  44.6
2014   2 100.4  72.4  44.3 

Latest sunspot news

The latest from NASA:

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 75 in the Fall of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number (for 2012/02) is already nearly 67 due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. We are currently well over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.

 The latest prediction graph from http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif

Solar predictions

The NASA solar physics website has some recent updates to the solar cycle peak predictions:

"The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 76 in the Fall of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number (for 2012/02) is already nearly 67 due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high. We are currently well over three years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906."

Looks like they are expecting a double peak cycle with a slightly larger peak about a year from now. We'll see. The peak is likely to be very low compared with mega-peaks seen in the last half century.