Solar cycle

As we are now on the downward slope of the solar cycle it’s worth checking the latest solar data.

See https://www.solen.info/solar/

Solar Activity

Near the start of the month my favourite site for solar data is updated. I have not checked yet but this is usually done early in the month. It is worth taking a peek so we can see how the cycle is progressing. 

We are on the down-slope, but conditions on the higher HF bands are likely to remain good for a few years. 

It is my view that with modes like FT8 we will find 10m open more than we thought.

See https://www.solen.info/solar .

Solar data

It is good to see the updated solar data. We are now clearly on the downward slope of the solar cycle, although we can expect conditions on the higher HF bands to be good for quite a while yet.

See https://www.solen.info/solar/ . 

What do A and K indices mean?

Most days I give the solar data. Several people wonder what the A and K indices mean.  Hopefully this ARRL file will explain.   

Basically a high solar flux is good for HF conditions and low A and K indices mean stable geomagnetic conditions, which are good. 

As a rough indicator look for a high solar flux and low A and K indices for good HF conditions.

See https://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0209038.pdf

Solar activity - up?

 In the last few days, solar activity seems to have improved somewhat.  I am not sure if this will alter the smoothed sunspot peak, but it will be worth keeping an eye on my favourite site for solar data.

Sunspot numbers

My favourite site for solar data usually publishes an updated forecast of solar data at the start of a new month. 

See https://www.solen.info/solar/ .

Solar activity

At the start of each month I like to take stock of solar activity by looking at my favourite site for solar data. 

It still looks like were on the start of the slow decline, although we can expect HF conditions on the higher bands to be good for some time.

See https://www.solen.info/solar/ .

Solar activity in 2024

There is now little doubt that we are at, or just over, the peak of solar cycle 25. 

Some were wondering if we would have any sunspots at all, but it turned out to be a decent peak. The E-W F2 MUF exceeded 50MHz several times.  At this time in the month I usually check the solar activity.

See https://www.solen.info/solar/.

Over the solar peak?

In my opinion we have just passed the solar peak. We can expect a few years of good conditions, but I expect the trajectory to be slowly downwards.

Solar Data

Early in the month I enjoy looking at the forecast for the solar cycle on my favourite site for such data. At the moment the peak for sunspots in cycle 25 looks like August 2024, but it depends on the smoothing period. 

What should be the case, is solar conditions should be good for some time yet. I wanted to link to the image on the solan website but failed. Clearly the copyright is with solan.

https://www.solen.info/solar/

Peak of solar cycle 25

It looks like we are at the peak of this cycle. We have well exceeded the peak expected.

Peak of solar cycle 25?

The jury is still out on the smoothed peak of solar cycle 25. At one time it was last year, but now it is thought possible it could be October 2024 according to Solan. 

What is certain is solar conditions are good and likely to remain so for some years to come.

Solar activity "explosion"

In the last few weeks solar activity has gone mad with very high numbers. See the chart on my favourite site for solar data. See https://www.solen.info/solar/ . I highly recommend the data on this website.

Solar activity

There is no doubt that we have seen some very high solar activity of late. 

Both solar flux and sunspot numbers have been high. As the peak of the solar cycle is an average, it will be many months after the event that we will know when the peak actually occurred. The good news is solar conditions will be good for several years yet.

See https://www.solen.info/solar/ .

Solar cycle 25 peak?

My favourite site for solar data pushed into this year the peak of solar cycle 25. It was November 2023 for some time. I am wondering if this has to be adjusted yet again, based on the high solar activity this month? They take an average so the peak is always some months ahead of the month with the highest numbers.

See https://www.solen.info/solar/ .

Solar cycle 25 peak

 According to my favourite site for solar data, the maximum for solar cycle 25 was probably June 2024 i.e. quite recently.

When was/is solar maximum?

My usual site for solar data usually has a major update at the start of the month. Last time they were predicting the smoothed peak of solar cycle 25 was November 2023. It will be interesting to see this month's prediction. Sometimes we have a second peak.

See https://www.solen.info/solar/ .

Solar predictions

Usually, near the start of the month my favourite site for solar data has a major update. This last few weeks have seen days with high solar flux and sunspot numbers, so it will be interesting to see if forecasts have changed much.

HF propagation

At the moment, we are meant to be on the downward slope of cycle 25, although in the last few days, the solar flux and sunspot number have been very high. Even if sunspot numbers are declining, solar conditions will be good for several years. 

One useful tool is https://prop.kc2g.com/ (see map) which shows how good the MUF is across the world.

Sunspots declining?

 Sometimes we see a second peak that can be higher than the first, but at the moment it looks like we are on the downward slopes of solar cycle 25. My favourite site for solar data has just been updated.

Conditions should still be good for several years yet.