C5 solar flare

Southgate News reports that there was a C5 solar flare a few days ago. This was expected to mainly miss the earth, although conditions were disturbed yesterday.

See http://southgatearc.org/news/2017/april/massive-explosion-on-the-sun.htm#.WPm7WoWcHIU

Slowly declining solar conditions

We are now on the slow slide down to the next solar minimum. Those with memories of the last minimum will remember the long spotless periods. The next could be even worse.

Luckily the slope is quite gradual and often there are days where solar activity is higher.  On better days, the higher bands support N-S DX.

As I have said before, I have worked QRP SSB real DX on 10m in periods with no sunspots. WSPR and JT65 should be even better.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/ .

Solar updates

At the moment, my source of solar data has not been updated, so I am unable to update on this blog. I'll do this later in the day, all being well.

More hot sun and flying ants - NOT amateur radio

For about a week now we have had better summer weather in this part of the UK. Temperatures have been in the mid 20s to low 30s (deg C) all week. We had one big storm which dropped humidity, but yesterday and today are hot.

Australian flying ants - but UK ones look similar

It is also "flying ant season". Whilst I was out yesterday, we had hundreds of flying ants in our bedroom. I gather these larger, flying ants are queens. They come out on mass to mate. It is usually just one day, then they are gone. The hot weather has not helped.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuptial_flight

Declining solar conditions

We have yet more evidence of the slide in solar conditions. We have had several days without any sunspots in recent days.  Next autumn when the Es is rare and 10m propagation depends on F2 propagation, we will see E-W propagation more rarely than last year on 10m.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/ .

Slowly declining solar activity

We have had several days recently with a total absence of sunspots. There is now little doubt that we are now on the slow, downward slide to the next solar minimum. The slide on the downwards few years is usually slower than the rise to the next peak after the minimum. The next peak is expected to be very poor.

Next autumn could be very interesting, although conditions on 10m are very unlikely to be as good as the last few years.

In my lifetime it is very unlikely I shall ever see 10m F2 conditions really good again. This is quite a sobering thought. Es (multi-hop) may be the only real hope of E-W DX on 10m in some summer months. Such DX may also happen on 6m too. The only time I worked the USA on 6m (this was 2.5W CW QRP) was by Es in a quiet part of the solar cycle when F2 propagation was poor on the higher HF bands.

As always, this is the law of averages. There may be good days when 10m is "open" but such openings may be missed as people follow the activity ever lower in frequency.  In the minimum even 20m may be dead. This is a few years away.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/.

Solar activity sliding

If you look at the trends, we are definitely on the slide down from the last solar peak. Solar flux has regularly been in the 80s of late. Sunspot numbers are much lower than last year. It will be interesting to see how propagation is on 10m this autumn compared with last autumn.

It is quite likely we will see years and years of poor solar conditions as the forecast for the next peak is not good. This will mean the lower bands will become more important. It is a pity that man-made noise is so much worse these days on the lower HF bands in particular. This is a problem in urban areas especially. Luckily Es does not seem to be affected by solar conditions.

See http://www.solen.info/solar/ .

Strange glow in the sky - NOT amateur radio

This morning, there was an odd sight in the sky. I think it is called "the Sun", although it seems a long time since we last saw it. The sky was bright blue with this thing glowing brightly.  All very odd. We seem to have had lots of clouds and rain in East Anglia this year, but nothing like the horrendous floods in north west England and in Scotland.

Sun? Surely not - NOT amateur radio

Is this really the sun in the sky? We have hardly had any sun for days now - just lots of rain. The sun has popped out from behind the clouds. I think I must be seeing things.

The active Sun?

See https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=zXN-MdoGM9g .   An impressive video showing how active the Sun has been since 2010.

Activity is now declining to the next sunspot minimum. Many experts predict the next solar cycle (cycle 25) will be very weak indeed. Some are even saying we are approaching a Maunder Minimum with extreme cold on the way and virtually no sunspots for many years. Predictions are getting good these days.

See also http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/entries/6d50a6bd-779a-32d6-bfca-06e4484d6835 .  This dates from 2013, but still applies. The last peak was a pretty weak affair. The next could be almost a non-starter. A Maunder Minimum might help offset global warming to some extent?

See also http://www.solen.info/solar/ .