According to the BBC, Ukraine and Russia have agreed an "energy ceasefire". I really hope this is the start of the long road to peace. This is such a waste of lives and property.
See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6pvg4jyz1m0o
UPDATE 1615z: This is a Trump announcement. Russia has not (yet?) agreed to it. President Trump wishing?
It would seem Russia is trying to bring Ukraine to its knees. At the same time the very high cost of the war is bringing a severe strain to the Russian economy starved of western chips and semiconductors. There is a new tax coming in that tries to help Russia make its own and be less dependent on the West. This will take time.
A very interesting metric of economic activity in Russia is to look at the nighttime lighting in Russia.
In Ukraine , Russia seems to be trying to grind down civilians, who seem to be tiring of the war. At the same time Ukraine is trying to bring the war closer to ordinary people within Russia.
At the same time Russia seems to be probing NATO to see how it would respond.
I am pretty sure most ordinary people in Russia and Ukraine really just want a peaceful life. I do hope they can find a way of ending the needless carnage and destruction. It is all so silly.
President Trump has just sent his special envoys to Russia and Ukraine.
I do not think the prospects for peace have been advanced at all.
In Putin's eyes they were like putty.
See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6248nvqy8po .
This "special military operation" is now over 4 years old and should have been a few days. How it will all end is anyone's guess.
Ukraine has changed its war strategy to hit oil refineries deep in Russia.
It has been trying to sell some of its oil abroad using shadow tankers.
These countries are now being hit by secondary sanctions. Much of this Russian oil is being held on tankers on the high seas with nowhere to go.
In the last few months Ukraine has changed its method of fighting the war with Russia.
Increasingly Ukraine is hitting oil refineries in Russia leading to a fuel shortage. Russia continues to hit Ukraine, but the strikes in Russia are leading to real problems.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has been going since 2022. Recently Ukraine has been attacking targets deep in Russia, so ordinary Russians are beginning to feel the pain.
With the "special military operation" in Ukraine, the Russian economy is on a war footing. There are a number of indicators suggesting the Russian economy is suffering, despite what official statistics might say.
It would appear that Russia is not having it as easy as they once thought it would be.
Militarily Russia should be far superior, but increasingly Ukraine is bringing the war to Russians in Russia.
The interview with Professor Scott Lucas in Eire is revealing.
The Russians have published figures which downgrade the growth in the Russian economy. Structural weakness?
It looks like the Russian Rouble could fall heavily this year as Russian oil sales fall .
This war has been going on now for 4 long years and is now entering the 5th with no clear end in sight. It would seem President Putin is trying recreate the USSR and does not see Ukraine as a legitimate state. He has shown no willingness to stop the fighting.
This has now been going on for 4 years.
No nation is perfect, but I really wish this would end fairly and end soon.
My worry is the USA will just walk away. Clearly Europe is concerned about President Putin's aims beyond Ukraine, for example in the Baltic and Finland. At one time an attack on one NATO nation was the same as an attack on all NATO members and was a strong deterrent. Would the USA join?
The Ukrainian people have put up a stalwart defence.
I watch quite a few videos about the Ukraine and Russia. Most say that inside Russia things are getting very hard, and now even harder with falling oil prices.
It would appear (outwardly at least) that Putin wants a new Russian Empire. He sees the destruction of Ukraine as a separate nation as something worth fighting for. The fall of Russia internally seems to be very slow in happening.
If the USA is pulled out of supporting Ukraine, I think the wrong message will be sent to the world that bullying succeeds.
It appears to me that Ukraine is "between a rock and a hard place".
It looks like they are being offered a very poor deal over their heads by Russia and the USA.
If they do not accept the USA is likely to stop intelligence sharing and just walk away.
The world seems to be run by selfish individuals who are more interested in their own enrichment rather than that of their citizens.
Where are the leaders who put the interests of the common person ahead of rich billionaires?
This video was on YouTube earlier. It includes a piece about the disappearance of Sergei Lavrov who is the Russia Foreign Minister who seems to have "dropped off the radar" in recent weeks. Apparently he is very bright and has been a real supporter of President Putin of Russia.
My gear was turned on just after breakfast. UPDATE 1706z: 151 stations have spotted me today. See map.
