Is Russia in deep trouble?

Apparently OPEC+ has agreed to increase production still further, which is likely to result in a further fall in oil price per barrel. Also Ukraine drone strikes have been targeted at Russian oil processing leading to shortages at pumps. As Russia depends heavily on oil exports, this could really hurt.

Trump upside - NOT amateur radio

In my view tariffs are a bad thing.  

What President Trump is trying to do against Canada wins him no friends. The USA is hardly seen as a role model any more by the third world, who will increasingly be attracted to China. Sadly, the Trump administration comes across as power hungry and greedy. These are not values that many in the world see as good.

Although I understand what President Trump is trying to achieve, this reminds me of King Canute trying to control the tides!!

It may encourage USA firms to make parts, e.g. for cars, in the USA, but I struggle to see how they can make them inexpensively, stoking inflation in the USA. Far Eastern manufacturing will always be less expensive unless they use robots thereby reducing US jobs.

One upside is the dollar is now far weaker against the UK pound, making oil (for us) less expensive.

See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cly412xwz44t .

Oil price - NOT amateur radio

 Despite the increasing tension in the Middle East, the price of oil seems remarkably stable.

Oil prices - NOT amateur radio

With all the increased tension in the Middle East I am surprised how little prices have moved. I remember back in the Suez crisis of 1956, petrol was rationed again. It is as if the world either expects a ceasefire or knows how to cope if the Gulf is closed. 

Are we far less dependent on oil from the Middle East?

Oil and gas prices - NOT amateur radio

In recent months, these have fallen in the UK. There is a suspicion that prices rise like a rocket and fall like a feather here in the UK. 

At its peak diesel was £199.9 a litre. It has since fallen about 50p. In some places it is even cheaper. I get the distinct impression all the reductions in wholesale prices are not being passed on. I am not sure who is trying to claw back profits lost during the pandemic, but somebody is!

For the hard pressed motorist or someone depending on gas or oil to heat their home, a full and quick reduction is needed, by law if necessary.

Oil giant's profits - NOT amateur radio

The war in Ukraine has caused an undeniable rise in the costs of fuel and household gas. Only today one of the giants in the industry announced huge profits. 

Now I know some times things can be much harder, but most companies were not expecting these huge profits. This is at a time when millions of ordinary people are struggling to eat and keep warm.

My view is simple: this is obscene.

I am not a vocal politician, but this is asking for trouble. In many countries I think this could lead to revolt or even revolution.

See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62382624 .

UK oil prices - NOT amateur radio

Recently, UK oil wholesale prices seem to be around $105 a barrel. At the pumps prices have fallen a little bit, but not very much. I think the days of low cost petrol and diesel are over. Gas prices seem to be still going up in recent days.

UK fuel prices - NOT amateur radio

Since the start of the Ukraine war ("special operation"? Who is he kidding?) wholesale oil prices have dropped back about 20% to close to $100 a barrel. Whilst exchange rates have got worse, the price at the pumps has hardly changed. It is still hovering close to £2.00 a litre for diesel.

It would be good if UK fuel prices dropped a bit too, as fast as they go up. I know oil company profits vary widely, but big profits right now seem immoral.

Fuel prices in the UK - NOT amateur radio

In the last few months wholesale UK fuel prices have dropped back quite a bit. OK, the US dollar exchange rate has got worse and oil is bought in dollars.

Now, I am no expert, but it seems when prices rise that oil companies are keen to put up prices, but are less keen to put prices down when they pay less wholesale. 

It is interesting that they are very keen to avoid that £2 a litre figure with the diesel price widely at £199.9 a litre.

It would be rather nice if garages dropped their prices/profits when they can.

Oil prices up - NOT amateur radio

Before too long we will all be driving cars that are powered by non-polluting energy. We must also ensure that these energy types are also not produced from polluting sources and are sustainable. 

In the end there needs to be a breakthrough in battery technology and energy storage so that fuels like electricity produced by solar and wind can be stored.

For now, oil prices are a bellweather of the economy. Oil prices have doubled in the last few months and fuel at the pumps has gone up in price. I guess this suggests more optimism for the year ahead.

US oil prices - NOT amateur radio

As I write, the West Texas oil prices have recovered after turning negative! These are strange Covid-19 times indeed with demand slumping and storage capacity in the USA now full.

In the morning things could well have changed again. As I write, WTI oil prices have recovered a bit.

Oil producers agree 10% cut in output? - NOT amateur radio

Although I have yet to see this confirmed, it looks like the biggest oil exporters including Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed a 10% cut in oil output in the light of a heavy fall in demand.

I think this should help to stem the heavy falls in recent weeks. Whether or not oil prices recover remains to be seen.

See https://www.ft.com/content/5ad12d12-d662-4e5b-88c8-6836dd1fb29a

Oil price way down - NOT amateur radio

At 1230z today oil prices have dropped over 4%. This is a sure sign of low demand. The FTSI100 stock index has fallen about 1000 points. One UK airline has gone into administration.

UPDATE 1546z: It is now down 6.58%. Recession here we come....

UPDATE 1638z: Now down 8.96%.

UPDATE 2000z:  Oil ended the day 9.1% down.

UPDATE 2102z:  Oil prices are still falling. At the moment things are still bad.

Fuel prices creeping up? - NOT amateur radio

Certainly over the last month, UK fuel prices have been rising. Although the pound is stronger against the dollar, the wholesale price of oil has been rising faster.

See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/commodities/143908/default.stm

Fuel prices - NOT amateur radio

Have you noticed that UK fuel prices are creeping up? The UK £ to US $ is getting better and better, but the wholesale price of crude is rising faster. At the moment diesel is up to £1.29 a litre, but it seems to go up every week.