10 years time?

It would appear that amateur radio is mainly a hobby for older men, often with more disposable income than many. The hobby still attracts very few women and few young people. This may be different as I write this with a UK bias.

If we extrapolate to the next solar maximum in about 2035, many current amateurs will be dead, incapacitated, in care homes and NOT buying new rigs. The inevitable consequence is amateur radio is no longer a profitable business for many manufacturers or dealers. They will leave our market or go out of business, As I have said before, many magazines depend on a very few dealers to stay viable. I can see some magazines and dealers folding or magazines being published less often, digital only or smaller physically.

Many will say we have to attract and keep younger people. Perhaps.

There is little doubt that amateur radio is changing. 

My own view has been for some time that amateur radio as we knew it will disappear. PTTs will want to wash their hands of it, so deregulation will be the order of the day.

My prediction?   Amateur radio will combine with CB, amateur radio will become deregulated, fewer magazines , fewer dealers, manufacturers and national societies. Experimenters will continue in some other way.

The future of amateur radio in the UK

 It is hard to predict the future, but some trends are clear:

• Amateur radio is, in the main, a hobby of white older men.
• People less often use amateur radio for chatting, preferring the internet.
• The hobby is attracting and keeping fewer young people.
• There is far less building and experimenting.
• The national society (RSGB) depends heavily on old men volunteering.
• Far fewer transceivers will be sold in the future as we age.
• Japanese manufacturers will increasingly question if there are still profits in amateur radio.
• The licencing authority (OFCOM) gains no revenue from amateur radio, just costs.
• We increasingly rely on fewer UK dealers.
• Some dealers will retire and close.
• Some magazines depend heavily on advertising revenue and would really suffer if this revenue stream stopped.

Take together, things will inevitably change.  The same situation is likely in many countries e.g. the USA and Germany.

It is my view, quite possibly totally wrong, that deregulation is the most likely outcome. One possibility is:

• Amateur radio will cease in its current form.
• All amateur radio bands will be deregulated so no licence will be required.
• Callsigns will become optional, but allocated by the RSGB if still needed.
• No interference must be caused.
• Amateur radio will merge with other licence free services like CB and ISM.

It is far from clear what the future holds, but change will come. One possibility is than any frequency may be used with the exception of certain restrictions such as frequencies allocated to the military or commercial services and broadcasting as long as no harmful interference is caused.

Am I concerned?  No. My interest has always been experimentation and any such changes are unlikely to make things worse. Also, most amateur radio operators are appliance operators these days, buying their transceivers from a dealer with little or no idea about how it works! I know of one local who does not know how to even use the transceiver he bought!

The future of amateur radio

There was a link on Amateur Radio Weekly yesterday saying that amateur radio in the USA was not dying, but it was changing. I cannot speak for the USA, but I can for the UK.

Many groups are seeing a change, not just amateur radio: churches in the main, have an aging (mostly female) demographic. When this demographic ages and dies there will be very few left in many churches.

Amateur radio is like this. It does, in the main, appeal to older men. Many are retired with more disposable income than those younger people with growing families, high rents or mortgages. I do not see many of them joining the hobby as we did. These days they are more interested in their screens and online games.  Worldwide communication is no longer magic and fascinated: it is just taken for granted.

Many PTTs are growing tired of administering amateur radio as it no longer generates revenues.

In the future I can see things changing for sure. My prediction is that amateur radio will merge with CB and become a free-for-all. As long as interference is not caused, these PTTs could not care. The main issue I can see would be traceability without some sort of callsign and registration.

See https://k4fmh.com/2025/01/22/the-u-s-ham-radio-market-is-it-dying/ .

The future of amateur radio

In an earlier post I mentioned that CQ magazine was ceasing production. MFJ can no longer be competetive making on-site.

In my view, amateur radio is reaching a critical point. There is no denying that amateur radio is a hobby that (mainly) appeals to older men. There are a few younger people interested and there are now very few radio magazines on sale in newsagents, whereas there are many about PCs and gaming. In the main, much as many would wish otherwise, younger folk get "turned on" by other things. Younger people are not fascinated by the magic of radio.

As we age, fewer pieces of commercial gear will get made (fewer profits to be made), fewer ads will appear from  dealers, magazines will have less revenue, these will shrink or disappear and amateur radio as we knew it will cease to be.

This sounds gloomy and I hope I am proved wrong, but, so far, everything I expected is coming true.

What will the future look like? Many PTTs are losing interest in amateur radio, preferring to  concentrate on things that can make them money.

If I had to guess, these are what I expect will happen in the coming years:

• Fewer new products dedicated to the amateur radio market will be produced.
• Fewer dealers will remain around.
• Fewer magazine adverts will be needed.
• Fewer magazines will exist.
• Those magazines that survive will become smaller.
• PTTs will "wash their hands" of amateur radio.
• Amateur radio will become a free-for-all.
• National radio societies will issue callsigns to those that want them.
• CB and amateur radio (possibly ISM) will become the same thing.
• All amateur radio frequencies will become CB frequencies and licence free.
• Creating no interference to revenue generating services will be the important thing.

Is it all bad? I don't think so. To many people CB and amateur radio are different ways of chatting. Experimentation will carry on.

Navel gazing

It is very hard to predict the future of amateur radio. There are some things we know, and many more we  do not.

These are the things we know:

• What excited us years ago are not necessarily what gets people excited today.
• People can chat across the world for free with video using the internet.

These are the things we do not know:

• What will attract and keep people interested in amateur radio in the years ahead?
• As most amateurs age and become inactive, what will become of our hobby?
• How many dealers will be around in 20 years?
• How many manufacturers will still make dedicated amateur radio products?
• How many magazines will survive?
• What impact will AI have on our hobby?

In all honesty I have no idea. What I do know is in 20 years' time things will be very different.

The future of amateur radio

This is a subject I have discussed before. These are my current views. I may well be proved wrong.

• National authorities like OFCOM and the FCC gain nothing from amateur radio and have no real interest.
• In 20 years' time most of the people currently active in amateur radio will be dead.
• In the future, all amateur radio will be run by national radio societies like the RSGB and ARRL who will allocate callsigns for those that still want them.
• Exams will not be needed. Who needs exams to talk about gardening on 80m with commercial gear?
• Deregulated services like ISM and CB will merge with a deregulated amateur radio service.
• There will be fewer dedicated amateur radio products.
• There will be fewer, and smaller amateur radio magazines.

Amateur radio as a service is changing. In my view, the future is about deregulation and as long as you don't interfere with others, it may be allowed. Access to all (current) amateur bands will be open to all.

Does it bother me? Not really. Experimenters will continue to experiment and those that want to natter about gardening can just get on with it. 

Cynic, me?

Future plans

Starting tomorrow, I expect to be mainly on 10m QRP FT8. If F2 looks promising I shall QSY to 8m FT8 on 40.680 MHz hoping for the USA. This might be possible in late October or November.

My order and payment for the 23cm transverter has been received. When it comes, I shall try for some local 23cm QSOs, although my main aim is some UKAC sessions /P next year.

Has the decline already started?

Some time ago, I expressed my concerns about the future of our hobby as the average age of radio amateurs increased. 

My concern was that as we age, it is likely that fewer new radios will be bought. In 20 years' time several of us will be in care homes! If we still have amateur radio access, it will probably be with internet radios.

Already, I think one European amateur radio dealer has gone. My prediction is others will follow across the planet. 

The danger is magazines will see less advertising revenue, so some will shrink or go out of business. 

Some manufacturers will view our hobby as a "lost cause" and may decide to leave the market. There will be a scramble to cut costs. I really cannot see all our traditional Japanese manufacturers continuing in our market without radical changes to their business models. Those that will still be around are those that see the future and adapt accordingly.

Now, some places are bucking the trend and the number of new radio amateurs is increasing. In my view, this is the exception. What we have to recognise is that what attracted us is very unlikely to attract many newcomers today.

Be in little doubt, our hobby is about to encounter very hard times in my view.

The future

Yesterday, I expressed my views on Yaesu. I may be very wrong, and hope I am. 

However, these are the inevitable facts that we have to face:

1. Many radio amateurs are retired.
2. Within 20 years many will have died or be in care homes.
3. The pool of amateurs able to buy new commercial radios will probably diminish considerably.
4. Many of the big Japanese amateur radio manufacturers will no longer be interested in amateur radio.
5. Low cost manufacturers will dominate.
6. Many amateur radio dealers will leave the market or go bust.
7. There will be fewer dealer adverts.
8. Some amateur radio magazines will go and those that remain will struggle.

In my view, I think we are in for hard times ahead in our hobby. We have to attract and keep younger people or we risk the hobby just dying out.

My view is the real future is in self training and research. Radio amateurs can do research for nothing. By self training we grow future radio engineers who are hard to find.

The future is in our hands.

The future - NOT amateur radio

Whatever we expect the future to be, it is different. Life has a nasty habit of throwing the totally unexpected at us. It seems the only certainty is the future will be different from what we expect.

The future of the hobby

It is hard to generalise, but amateur radio is changing. Years ago, to talk to people around the world meant an expensive phone call or getting an amateur licence and building your own gear. Today, many of us just buy a main transceiver and few build their own gear. We are (nearly) all guilty. I know I am. 

What happens in 20 years' time? Many of us will be old and frail and few of us will be interested in shiny new transceivers. Quite a few manufacturers will decide there is little profit in amateur radio and leave the market. Dealers will go out of business. There will be fewer adverts in magazines. Some magazines will close. The hobby will die.

I really hope I am wrong. It is up to us all to forget what brought us into the hobby, as the magic of radio will no longer be the magnet it once was. Today, talking across the planet is free and easy via the internet by video. We need to understand what "turns young people on" technologically and move with the times.

Grey haired old men waxing lyrical about the past is not the future.

No, I am concerned. Your views?

Hard times ahead?

For a long time I have expressed my concern about the future of our hobby. One of the first things could be dealers stopping adverts. This may already be happening (see link). 

With fewer adverts, national magazines will struggle. Amateurs will (on average) get older still and buy fewer radios. More dealers will close. Some will leave the amateur market. Magazines will get fewer and those that remain will be smaller.

The very nature of our hobby will change. It has already started.

One thing to be aware of is warranties. If a company ceases trading will warranties still be valid?

See http://www.southgatearc.org/news/2020/september/waters-and-stanton-advertising.htm#.X1imeWjYq00

The future of amateur radio

On Southgate News there is discussion about online exams as recently done in the UK and in the USA. This particular piece is about Australia.  Personally, I think it is a far bigger issue than exams.

When I was young radio was magic and the idea of talking across the world was like landing a man on Mars. To talk around the world meant amateur radio and getting a licence.  My first introduction to the hobby was hearing AM amateurs on HF and 160m. These days there is no magic as people can hold video chats with friends and family across the planet for free using the internet.

Unless we can properly connect with the generation of today, I can see amateur radio just fizzling out within 20 years. Now, I hope I am pessimistic, but the signs are not good. As the amateur radio population ages (most are old men) fewer radios will get sold and some manufacturers will leave the market as there are no profits to be made. There will be fewer dealers, fewer ads, fewer and smaller magazines. Fewer new people will enter the hobby.

I just wonder what our hobby will look like in 2040.

See http://www.southgatearc.org/news/2020/august/time-for-reconstruction-of-the-ham-radio-hobby.htm#.Xztyp2jYq00

The future of amateur radio

In recent years there has been a shift to digital communications using modes like FT8. Whereas in the past, radio amateurs focused on speaking to people across the world, there is far less of this now. People may make "rubber stamp"  brief contacts, but there is far less chatting. Most of us can enjoy video chats across the planet for free on the internet. Speaking across the world is no longer magic. What "turns on" younger people is not the same as in the 1950s or 1960s. We have to find out what this is and forget what attracted us.

Southgate News has a link to an interesting piece in IEEE Spectrum talking about the issue in the USA. I think this is mirrored across the planet.  The main issue is amateurs globally are getting older and there are fewer youngsters coming into the hobby. In 20 years' time the hobby we love could just fizzle out.

See http://www.southgatearc.org/news/2020/july/the-uncertain-future-of-ham-radio.htm#.Xwxp2ojYq00

What does the future hold? - NOT amateur radio

My dad died in 1987. He was totally unaware of the internet, the fall of the Berlin wall and much else too. If he came back today he would wonder at mobile phones.

I wonder what new things will appear in the next 30-40 years? It is hard to crystal gaze when new things appear of which we have no concept.

The FT8 debate

There is a debate currently about the merits (or otherwise) of new digital modes like FT8. The amateur radio population is aging alarmingly: in a few years' time most amateurs will be very old and, unless we attract younger people, our hobby will just die out.

In just the same way high streets are changing, there will be fewer new rigs, fewer radio magazines and fewer rallies. And that is just for starters. 20 years from now what will our hobby look like?

It appears that FT8 is overtaking SSB as the main mode on HF. Unless you have specialised software, you will not "chance on" casual amateurs as we "old timers" did. This is how I first found amateur radio. These days I am unsure how young people find us.

Personally, I love WSPR and FT8, but I can see that these and similar modes could adversely impact newcomers entering our hobby. I wish I had the magic bullet. Clearly what attracts people today is very different from what attracted me all those years ago.

Slow decline?

It has been my view for some time that amateur radio is in a slow decline.

Recent figures of licenced amateurs in India on Southgate News paints a mixed picture. Although there quite a few new licences, the number of renewals indicates a gradual decline, on average. In the UK most radio amateurs are older men. Yes, there are exceptions, but unless more young people are attracted and retained, the hobby will be in terminal decline. As the market shrinks there will be fewer products, fewer magazines and fewer adverts. The future is in our hands.

See http://southgatearc.org/news/2018/march/india-releases-ham-radio-license-figures.htm#.WrdqxUxFzIU

Young amateurs?

When I was fit and healthy, I gave quite a few talks to radio clubs in East Anglia. One thing is very apparent: our hobby is mainly an interest of men and older men at that. Of course, there are the odd exceptions. In some clubs membership was good, whereas in others not so good.

What is very clear is that unless young blood is soon attracted and kept, our hobby/interest will die out within 20-30 years. I notice that this was a topic on the Southgate News Page today. I don't think this is just a UK thing, although in the USA I see licence numbers are at an all time high.

Certainly, the pure magic of radio we experienced when my generation was young is no longer a draw: it is possible to Skype video across the globe instantly via the phone in your hand nowadays. In my youth, the only way to communicate around the world really was by amateur radio and for that you needed to pass the RAE.

No, we need to find what fascinates the younger generation and use that as a lure. It is the whole future of our interest that is at stake here. To me, radio is still magic, especially QRP.  However I can see this is not a source of fascination to today's youngsters, to whom texting and mobile internet are second nature.

What would draw in and keep young people fascinated by our hobby today? I think the word "fascinated" is important. As a youngster, radio communications fascinated me and has kept me interested for a lifetime. It is this fascination that is missing today I think.