As I left the 10m WSPR running overnight at 500mW I was able to see how soon the band opened for me this morning. As of 0900z just 3 spots received, all from RV3APM at 2428km in Russia. No sign (yet) of 4X1 or LZ but it is very early and I am just running 500mW. On RX a station from Cameroon is coming through - TJ3TS .
UPDATE 1045z: EA8/DL9XJ has spotted my 500mW twice so far.