I am tempted to QSY down a band to 28MHz from 50MHz, but fear that 6m will then promptly open to the USA by multi-hop Es. It would just be my luck! Maybe I'll just stay on 6m and see what happens.
6m conditions have been very good today. Early June is getting close to the best times for Es DX on 6m.
I seem to recall regular openings to Japan from western Europe on 6m about this time. There was some speculation about the mode as it is FAR too far for Es and there were thoughts that
noctilucent clouds may be significant. Openings were usually morning weak affairs and a decent station was needed. Don't think WSPR has been tried but Doppler might be a killer as the path crosses the auroral oval. Whatever the mode, this is fascinating stuff. 6m yet again throwing up propagation puzzles. I also wonder just how many so called "multi-hop" Es openings are actually some other mode? Some of the very long paths towards the Far East, Africa and the Americas make you wonder.
This sort of DX is still good in years of low solar activity. Just because the sunspot count can be VERY low does not mean low-VHF has no real DX. In many ways the quiet solar years are
more interesting.
UPDATE 1900z: No Es DX now since 1446z. Still hopeful the band
might open across the Atlantic this evening.