BREXIT deal? - NOT amateur radio

The Prime Minister has lodged formal proposals on leaving the EU. So far, the feedback from the EU is not good, but at least they are still talking. A better man than me may be able to forecast the outcome in the coming days.

My hopes rest on the EU wanting a deal and that the current proposal is a basis for further compromises on both sides. Whatever our views on BREXIT, most in the UK are fed up now and want a deal sooner rather than later.

BREXIT and UK Pound v. Euro - NOT amateur radio

It seems unlikely the UK's latest BREXIT offer will be acceptable to the EU. The UK Pound has continued to fall in value against the Euro.

As I see it, we have several possible outcomes: the UK leaves the EU without a deal (unlikely), there is last minute deal, or there is another extension. The EU wants a deal. Of the 3 options (there may be others) I suspect the last one will be the outcome, although I am frequently wrong!

Personally, I favour staying within the EU until a better trade deal is negotiated. In the end, that is surely what is sought.

BREXIT deal? - NOT amateur radio

The UK Prime Minister was on TV earlier. During the interview he talked about the Irish backstop. The EU has rejected what has been informally tabled. Unless the PM has something really new, I suspect we remain deadlocked.

BREXIT deal? - NOT amateur radio

Like most in the UK and the rest of Europe, I am fed up with BREXIT. Whether you voted "remain" or "leave" in the 2016 UK referendum, agreeing a deal seems illusive.

Both the UK and the rest of the EU want a deal, but no-one seems to want to compromise or lose face. Certainly most in the UK parliament and in the country seem angrier than even a few years ago. I do hope a deal in which no-one loses face can be agreed in the next few weeks. Whilst there is a lot of brinkmanship, time is rapidly running out.

I'd have more faith if the current Prime Minister was not a liar. Quite recently, he had an encounter with a man in a hospital. The PM claimed the press were not there when they clearly were! It looked like a press event to me. Sometimes I fear he believes what he wants to believe. Does this remind you of anyone?

The UK pound against the euro

When I looked last night, the UK pound had suddenly appreciated further against the euro. At one point it was worth little more than 1.07 euros, whereas now (last night) it was over 1.13. Before the BREXIT referendum, it was far higher. Does this suggest a big rebound if we (finally) agree a deal?

With all the uncertainty over BREXIT some were expecting it to fall close to parity. I am puzzled.

BREXIT deal? - NOT amateur radio

We have a Prime Minister who is on record as saying that we will be leaving the EU at the end of October deal or no deal. He has also said the chances of a no deal are 1 million to 1 against.

At the moment both the UK and EU seem to be playing chicken to see who blinks first. It seems to me that the divisions are only over the border between Eire and Ulster. Surely to goodness a compromise can be found that suits both the EU and UK?

If a compromise is not worked out, both lose. No-one wants that.

Boris - NOT amateur radio

At the moment, the UK Conservative party members are voting to elect their new leader. It is likely to be Boris Johnson, who will also become the new (unelected) UK Prime Minister. He sounds a bit like another Donald Trump.  I fail to understand why so many want him as their leader.

Personally, I am not impressed by either candidate. Most Conservative voters are in the older age bracket. Boris is, allegedly, a teller of untruths, although this is based on the media, so I may be wrong.  Both are public school boys, now grown up. I believe Boris went to Eton and Jeremy Hunt to Charterhouse.

My view is that whoever is elected will try, and fail, to get the EU to move in an attempt to get approval in Parliament for the EU withdrawal bill A vote of no confidence is possible, followed by a General Election.

God help us. 😢

UK pound versus the euro - NOT amateur radio

We have already seen quite big falls in the value of the UK pound against several major currencies. With the continued uncertainty over the UK Prime Minister and BREXIT, things are likely to get worse. Personally, I can't see any quick fix on the horizon. What is more likely is the UK pound will continue to lose money.

We are ruled by a bunch of public school toffs who haven't a clue about life for the majority. Sadly we voted them in!

It is in their (financial) interest to show non-Conservatives in a bad light. Remember, most of the written media is owned/controlled by right wingers. We are manipulated more than we realise.

BREXIT - what a mess! - NOT amateur radio

Whatever your viewpoint we are in a right mess.

We are due to leave the EU at the end of October and, as far as I can tell, we are no nearer an agreement. The election of Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt as UK Prime Minister solves nothing.

Assuming the turkeys vote for Christmas and there is a vote of no confidence in the UK government that is passed, I guess we'll have a general election. Most see the Labour leader as a left wing "loose cannon". Perhaps the best outcome would be a Labour-Lib-dem coalition,  but this does not exactly fill me with confidence either.

In my view we face rough times ahead and perhaps the biggest constitutional crisis since the 1600s.

BREXIT uncertainty - NOT amateur radio

We seem to be sleep walking into one of the biggest political crises in the UK in hundreds of years. Personally, I think we are being "led" by a bunch of career politicians with little to commend them. And this is in all political parties! There is a real lack of politicians with backbone and integrity.

As for the EU and BREXIT I am convinced there is no plan, but lots of crossed legs and lots of hope. I think the country and UK parliament are deeply divided over BREXIT and it could be several years before wounds are healed.

My own views on BREXIT reflect many in the UK. We see the benefits of EU membership and want free trade and no tariffs, but want no political union and to have control over our borders and who lives and works here. Basically we want the EU with looser control and free of gravy trains.

The future of UK politics - NOT amateur radio

OK, I have a crystal ball and this is my look at the next 6 months:

• Boris Johnson will be elected Conservative leader in the UK.
• He will also become UK Prime Minister
• He will try to get a better deal for BREXIT
• The EU will not play ball.
• There will be a no confidence vote in the UK parliament. 
• This will be lost by the Conservative government.
• There will be a General Election in the UK.
• A coalition government of Labour (now pro EU remaining) and Lib-Dems would become the governing party.
• A second national referendum on leaving the EU will be held.
• We vote to remain in the EU.
• The EU will reform or eventually fall apart. The ascendency of right wing parties forces reforms.

In June 2020 it will be interesting to see how right (or wrong!) I am.

UK pound against the euro - NOT amateur radio

We live in turbulent economic times. In recent weeks the UK pound has lost value against the euro and could lose more the longer the BREXIT uncertainty continues. It is hard to predict the future.

BREXIT - NOT amateur radio

We have the US president on a state visit to the UK giving his usual "helpful" advice. Without his help we are already in a mess with the ruling Conservatives and the main opposition Labour parties both deeply divided over the EU. Also the Conservatives are to elect a new leader and Prime Minister when Theresa May leaves soon.

Honestly, we are deeply divided over the EU and I see no easy answers. If I could hibernate I should do so for 10 years to see how this works out. If only the EU had been a little more flexible. With the rise of right wing parties maybe they will soon face a stark choice: modify how the EU works or face its break-up.

BREXIT - NOT amateur radio

My dad who died in 1987 had a phrase, "they couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery". In his own colourful language, I think this sums up our attempts to reach a BREXIT deal before we leave the EU. Certainly the Conservative ruling party under Theresa May has made a total disaster of this. I'd like to think the main opposition Labour party would have done better, but somehow I doubt this.

We are now in a leadership contest to elect a new Conservative leader and Prime Minister. Whatever happens next, the UK remains deeply divided both in the country and in parliament.

I wish we had some answers. If anything I suspect we will be even worse after a new leader is elected. If we have a public referendum the outcome is likely to be far from clear cut. What then?

EU elections - NOT amateur radio

Because of our delayed departure, the UK has had to take part in EU elections, The results will be known on Sunday when all EU member countries have voted.

In the UK these elections are quite odd. Unless by some late change of circumstances we vote to stay EU members, those elected will only sit for a few months.

It seem likely that the 2 major UK parties will do badly to either right wing or parties favouring staying members of the EU community. In the UK, this will be more of a protest vote. My wife and I have already voted Lib-Dem which is the party wishing to stay members. If I am honest none of the main UK political parties have policies which totally reflect my views, although the Lib-Dems are closest.

As a result of these elections, it would not surprise me if the EU made changes. With right wing parties on the rise, I suspect we will hear more about nations and less about a federal Europe in future. Assuming we do leave, I suspect the EU we leave will be much different within 5 years and we will wish we'd stayed.

BREXIT - NOT amateur radio

Whatever your views on BREXIT are we can all agree on one thing: we have made a right mess of it!  The UK people and main parties are deeply divided over this and the UK is more "broken" now than for years. The Prime Minister is going soon, but I cannot see a good replacement.

I have the feeling that we are on the verge of a new time in UK politics as both the Conservative and Labour parties are deeply divided over BREXIT.

What is needed is something to unite the UK. Short of war, I do not know would fit the bill - maybe we will all "get real" about climate change. Remember how public opinion suddenly changed on plastics?

BREXIT: all quiet - NOT amateur radio

After hearing about BREXIT non-stop, it is out of the headlines now and hardly gets a mention. There were talks between the UK government and the opposition aimed at finding a compromise, although, as far as I know, nothing has been reported.

The truth is the nation and MPs are deeply divided. Some are very keen we should leave, even with no deal, whilst others think we should stay. Some want a vote on whatever deal is agreed. The UK Prime Minister is still trying to get her deal approved by the UK Parliament.

A mess? I couldn't possibly comment.

BREXIT - NOT amateur radio

However you voted in the 2016 referendum on leaving the EU we can all agree on something. The last few years have been very badly handled by the UK and EU politicians.

In the UK, surely we should have agreed our position (across all shades of opinion) before triggering Article 50 to signal our intention to leave the EU. In my view, the UK Prime Minister has lost a great deal of credibility over BREXIT. Yes, she has a hard job, but she should learn to listen!

Surely the EU would realise the Irish border would be a sticking point and they should have done far more to assuage fears over being trapped in the EU for years and years. Clearly there is an element of sour grapes and punishment involved. Mind you, I can well understand that the EU is frustrated with the UK.

No, overall I am not at all impressed.

Blackmail - NOT amateur radio

Despite have lost the vote no less than 3 times already, the UK Prime Minister is reported to be wanting a 4th go to get her "divorce bill" to leave the EU approved by the MPs in the House of Commons. Whatever your views, you have to admire her tenacity!

Personally, I think this is blackmail - she is pandering to MPs fears of no-BREXIT or a long delay. She also realises a General Election is unlikely to win her many friends. It is clear her deal is widely disliked.

See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47756122

Constitutional crisis - NOT amateur radio

One thing the whole of the UK can agree on is we are in a right mess. The UK Government seems to have made a right mess of negotiating BREXIT and the UK parliament has wrestled control of the process. The UK Prime Minister seems powerless now.  I think she will resign this week.

Although another referendum seems unlikely, it would no longer surprise me if a majority would now vote to stay in the EU.  The EU has many faults though.

As someone once said, if you were a turkey would you vote for Christmas?