Whatever your views on BREXIT, we can expect difficult days ahead.
I am sure the EU wants to punish the UK for leaving the "club" and many in the UK hanker for days which cannot return when "Britannia ruled the waves" and we had an empire. This is an illusion.
Our future is very much linked to Europe as well as the rest of the world. It is reasonable to want the UK parliament to have the final say over our laws and who lives and works here. We cannot have total free movement of people within the EU. In the referendum over 2 years ago I voted "remain" but there was, and still is, a lot wrong with the EU. It is protectionist and inward looking.
In my view, the best outcome would be tariffless borders with the EU, but the UK controlling who lives and works here. Personally, I think the EU is miffed about the lack of funding from the UK and is dreading others following the UK's lead.
If an agreement can be stuck, I expect the UK pound to bounce back. If we leave the EU without agreement it is anyone's guess what will happen. In the end I am sure the UK will do fine outside the EU, but it might take several years for the dust to settle.
UPDATE 1146z: So far today, the UK pound has been climbing and is currently worth 1.126 euros.
Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EU. Show all posts
19 Nov 2018
17 Oct 2018
BREXIT - NOT amateur radio
There is no doubt that Theresa May, the UK PM, must regret the alliance with the DUP in Northern Ireland as it is they who are effectively blocking a withdrawal agreement with the EU. The sticking point is the border with Eire. Neither the EU or UK wants the return of a hard border.
When she held a snap general election we all expected her Conservative government to win an outright majority. Instead, her position weakened and she depends on the DUP for a slim majority. Whatever your views are on BREXIT, this is not a recipe for strong government.
In my view, as no parties want a "no deal" divorce, we will either get more time or a fudge.
When she held a snap general election we all expected her Conservative government to win an outright majority. Instead, her position weakened and she depends on the DUP for a slim majority. Whatever your views are on BREXIT, this is not a recipe for strong government.
In my view, as no parties want a "no deal" divorce, we will either get more time or a fudge.
6 Oct 2018
BREXIT deal? - NOT amateur radio
Negotiations on the UK's withdrawal from the EU were always going to be fraught and last minute. Both sides want the best compromise. It now looks a bit more hopeful with more positive noises from the EU.
I am sure that most people in the UK were less than happy with unrestricted movement within the EU, but were happy with free trade within the EU.
If the EU had been a bit more willing to compromise on this, I suspect the referendum outcome might have been different. For this I blame David Cameron (UK Prime Minister at the time) and the EU officials who could not read the "mood music". The UK has always been on the edge of the EU experiment.
In many countries the people of that nation want to have the final word over who works and lives in a particular nation. The UK does not want unrestricted immigration. It wants to have the final decision and, in my view, this is quite reasonable. I say this as someone who voted "remain".
This does not mean stopping low skilled workers coming to work in fruit picking, hospitals and hospitality. It means they do not have an automatic right to stay here for ever just because they are EU citizens.
See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45768848
I am sure that most people in the UK were less than happy with unrestricted movement within the EU, but were happy with free trade within the EU.
If the EU had been a bit more willing to compromise on this, I suspect the referendum outcome might have been different. For this I blame David Cameron (UK Prime Minister at the time) and the EU officials who could not read the "mood music". The UK has always been on the edge of the EU experiment.
In many countries the people of that nation want to have the final word over who works and lives in a particular nation. The UK does not want unrestricted immigration. It wants to have the final decision and, in my view, this is quite reasonable. I say this as someone who voted "remain".
This does not mean stopping low skilled workers coming to work in fruit picking, hospitals and hospitality. It means they do not have an automatic right to stay here for ever just because they are EU citizens.
See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45768848
25 Sept 2018
UK Pound versus Euro - NOT amateur radio
We live in uncertain times in the UK. I guess the markets are waiting to see how BREXIT pans out.
If we end with a reasonable "divorce" I guess the UK Pound could appreciate in value. If we leave on bad terms, the Pound could fall.
At the moment the EU and UK are both playing hard, although expect last minute bargaining: it is in nobody's interest to part badly.
If only the EU had detected the signs that little UK is full up and did not want freedom of movement I expect we would still be in the club.
If we end with a reasonable "divorce" I guess the UK Pound could appreciate in value. If we leave on bad terms, the Pound could fall.
At the moment the EU and UK are both playing hard, although expect last minute bargaining: it is in nobody's interest to part badly.
If only the EU had detected the signs that little UK is full up and did not want freedom of movement I expect we would still be in the club.
2 Jul 2018
BREXIT - NOT amateur radio
Apparently the UK Cabinet meets on Friday to agree the UK's position on leaving the EU. Some tough talks are ahead.
Members of the EU are paranoid about it failing, worried about losing our budget contribution and perhaps a bit jealous. At the same time, the UK Prime Minister is weak with much squabbling in her ranks. Later this week we'll really see the truth.
I voted "REMAIN" 2 years ago, but there is a lot wrong with the EU. In my view, it has to reform or it will fall apart. Leaving the EU is fraught with economic dangers.
Members of the EU are paranoid about it failing, worried about losing our budget contribution and perhaps a bit jealous. At the same time, the UK Prime Minister is weak with much squabbling in her ranks. Later this week we'll really see the truth.
I voted "REMAIN" 2 years ago, but there is a lot wrong with the EU. In my view, it has to reform or it will fall apart. Leaving the EU is fraught with economic dangers.
28 Feb 2018
The EU and BREXIT - NOT amateur radio
So the EU has published its draft bill on the UK leaving the EU. Since it was published, the UK pound has lost value against all major currencies. No doubt it will recover, but at the moment the UK seems to be fumbling around over what it really wants once we leave.
Why did we not say the referendum would not be binding unless the majority was x %? As it is the margin of "leave" over "remain" was a small 4%, with almost a half not wishing to leave the EU. I suspect fewer would vote leave now. Many want controls over immigration but still want the tariff-free trade with the EU.
UPDATE 2152z: At the end of the day, the UK pound was 0.76% weaker against the euro
Why did we not say the referendum would not be binding unless the majority was x %? As it is the margin of "leave" over "remain" was a small 4%, with almost a half not wishing to leave the EU. I suspect fewer would vote leave now. Many want controls over immigration but still want the tariff-free trade with the EU.
UPDATE 2152z: At the end of the day, the UK pound was 0.76% weaker against the euro
1 Feb 2018
EU sour grapes? - NOT amateur radio
Although I voted to remain a member, I detect a note of "sour grapes" on the part of the EU. Do I detect a note of bitterness that the UK will no longer pay some of the budget?
It seems perfectly reasonable to me that the UK wants the same policy to apply to all people who wish to live and work in the UK irrespective of the nation they come from.
It also seems quite reasonable that we would want to start work on trade deals whilst we are in the transition period.
No, I am beginning to detect an air of "sour grapes" on the part of the EU. In the end I think the EU will regret this.
All we really wanted was more control over who lives and works here on this small island. We will still trade with EU nations and others as we choose.
It seems perfectly reasonable to me that the UK wants the same policy to apply to all people who wish to live and work in the UK irrespective of the nation they come from.
It also seems quite reasonable that we would want to start work on trade deals whilst we are in the transition period.
No, I am beginning to detect an air of "sour grapes" on the part of the EU. In the end I think the EU will regret this.
All we really wanted was more control over who lives and works here on this small island. We will still trade with EU nations and others as we choose.
14 Jan 2018
BREXIT: a 2nd referendum? - NOT amateur radio
OK, I may be wrong (I often am!) but I think the people of the UK want to be able to trade freely within the EU, but at the same time want to say who lives and works here. The UK people are precious about the UK parliament having the last word on laws. We also hate waste and profligatism (is that a word?) in the EU.
If a second referendum vote was ever to take place and the questions carefully worded, it would not surprise me if we voted to stay in.
As I have said many times before, there is a lot wrong with the EU and a lot right. Personally, I think the UK people would like a reformed EU. Arguably, the EU has kept peace in Europe (mainly) for half a century, but it needs to evolve or it will fall apart.
If a second referendum vote was ever to take place and the questions carefully worded, it would not surprise me if we voted to stay in.
As I have said many times before, there is a lot wrong with the EU and a lot right. Personally, I think the UK people would like a reformed EU. Arguably, the EU has kept peace in Europe (mainly) for half a century, but it needs to evolve or it will fall apart.
12 Jan 2018
BREXIT - NOT amateur radio
If we leave the EU it is naïve to expect to get a trade deal that is more favourable than if we are members of the "club".
My own view is we want the trade deal, but we want a final say over laws in the UK parliament and control over who can stay and work here in the UK. Our trade in the short term has been helped by low cost immigrant workers, but we have been lazy and done little to increase efficiency in many sectors.
Personally I'd prefer to remain in a reformed EU without the needless waste and with control (ultimately) of our laws and people coming into the UK.
If we have to leave, so be it. In the end, I am sure the UK will do just fine. The bigger losers will be the EU. There is a lot right about the EU. There is also a lot wrong with it.
My own view is we want the trade deal, but we want a final say over laws in the UK parliament and control over who can stay and work here in the UK. Our trade in the short term has been helped by low cost immigrant workers, but we have been lazy and done little to increase efficiency in many sectors.
Personally I'd prefer to remain in a reformed EU without the needless waste and with control (ultimately) of our laws and people coming into the UK.
If we have to leave, so be it. In the end, I am sure the UK will do just fine. The bigger losers will be the EU. There is a lot right about the EU. There is also a lot wrong with it.
15 Dec 2017
BREXIT next stages - NOT amateur radio
Apparently the EU has agreed to move to the next stage in talks with the UK on its wish to leave. No doubt these talks will be hard, especially as Theresa May, the UK Prime Minister, is leader of a government only propped up by a group of Ulster MPs who don't like gays and abortions allegedly. I am not clear of my facts here.
Personally, I think the EU is fearful of other leavers and is concerned the EU could fall apart. There was much good in this "club", but much wrong too. In the end I hope we all strike a good deal in the best interests of all.
See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42368096 .
Personally, I think the EU is fearful of other leavers and is concerned the EU could fall apart. There was much good in this "club", but much wrong too. In the end I hope we all strike a good deal in the best interests of all.
See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42368096 .
8 Dec 2017
BREXIT latest - NOT amateur radio
As many may remember I voted "remain" in the UK referendum over whether, or not, we should leave the EU. There is much wrong with the EU, but, on balance, I thought remaining was the lesser of two evils. Overall, the UK narrowly voted to leave the EU.
Presently, the UK and EU are negotiating on the separation deal. There are tough negotiations ahead. At least the first set of hurdles appear to be behind us.
It is in the interest of both the EU and UK to reach an outcome that is good for all. Personally, I think we would have voted "remain" had the EU recognised how important (to the UK) was the control of our immigration and made some concessions in this regard for the UK. They did not, and the EU will suffer as the UK leaves - fewer rich nations to pay the bills of the EU.
It would not surprise me if the EU falls apart in the next 20 years. There are already cracks. The UK has always wanted trade, but placed less importance on security and a federal Europe. Perhaps the UK leaving the EU "club" was inevitable?
See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42277040 .
Presently, the UK and EU are negotiating on the separation deal. There are tough negotiations ahead. At least the first set of hurdles appear to be behind us.
It is in the interest of both the EU and UK to reach an outcome that is good for all. Personally, I think we would have voted "remain" had the EU recognised how important (to the UK) was the control of our immigration and made some concessions in this regard for the UK. They did not, and the EU will suffer as the UK leaves - fewer rich nations to pay the bills of the EU.
It would not surprise me if the EU falls apart in the next 20 years. There are already cracks. The UK has always wanted trade, but placed less importance on security and a federal Europe. Perhaps the UK leaving the EU "club" was inevitable?
See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42277040 .
30 Nov 2017
BREXIT - NOT amateur radio
We are currently in negotiations with the EU about our trading relationship once we leave. Personally, I think the main concern was over who we let in to live and work in the UK and not about trade. If the referendum was repeated making this clearer, I think we might have remained. It seems a pity that the EU did not understand this and make some exceptions for the UK. In a few years I think the EU will regret this. I think the EU is in denial and more worried about how it will finance its budgets once we leave.
3 Oct 2017
Sour grapes? - NOT amateur radio
At the moment the EU seems to want to play "hard ball" with the UK over Brexit. Personally, I think it is in the interest of most in the EU to reach a good settlement.
Many of us in the UK only wanted Brexit so we could keep control over our population: we are a small island with limited space and resources. Like many, I actually voted to remain in the EU, even though it was/is far from perfect.
No, personally, I think the hard EU line is because they are peeved we are leaving and will no longer contribute money to the project. EU nations need our trade. We will be free to trade with the world on our terms.
EU - get real!
Many of us in the UK only wanted Brexit so we could keep control over our population: we are a small island with limited space and resources. Like many, I actually voted to remain in the EU, even though it was/is far from perfect.
No, personally, I think the hard EU line is because they are peeved we are leaving and will no longer contribute money to the project. EU nations need our trade. We will be free to trade with the world on our terms.
EU - get real!
26 Sept 2017
A blip? - NOT amateur radio
In the last few weeks to UK pound has appreciated by around 6 Eurocents against the Euro. This may, of course, just be a blip. In the long-term, especially once the uncertainty over Brexit is over, I think the UK Pound will strengthen against the Euro considerably. This is my view, and I am no expert.
Fundamentally, I believe the Euro is flawed and there is really no resolution in sight for it main structural issues. Once the UK leaves the EU they will have fewer rich nations to fund the EU coffers. No, the EU is a bit like the curate's egg i.e. "good in parts". If only the members of the EU had given the UK more ground on controlling free movement we'd probably still be inside. Hoisted by their own petard?
I think a lot of the EU's stance is "sour grapes". The UK will be fine outside of the EU and they know it.
Fundamentally, I believe the Euro is flawed and there is really no resolution in sight for it main structural issues. Once the UK leaves the EU they will have fewer rich nations to fund the EU coffers. No, the EU is a bit like the curate's egg i.e. "good in parts". If only the members of the EU had given the UK more ground on controlling free movement we'd probably still be inside. Hoisted by their own petard?
I think a lot of the EU's stance is "sour grapes". The UK will be fine outside of the EU and they know it.
7 Sept 2017
Leaving the EU - NOT amateur radio
It was never going to be easy, but I detect a note of "sour grapes" on the part of the EU. Fewer big countries remain to finance the experiment and they are peeved we are leaving. I detect a note of bitterness.
Many (including me) voted to remain, but a majority wanted to leave. In the situation, we have to forge a new way forward in the world that is fair for all.
Tough negotiations are ahead, but I hope both sides come to an adult and just deal. Both sides are not served by a poor outcome.
Many (including me) voted to remain, but a majority wanted to leave. In the situation, we have to forge a new way forward in the world that is fair for all.
Tough negotiations are ahead, but I hope both sides come to an adult and just deal. Both sides are not served by a poor outcome.
19 Jul 2017
Pound to Euro exchange rate - NOT amateur radio
Some time ago I predicted that the UK Pound would strengthen against the Euro before then end of the year. At the moment it is weaker. Only time will tell.
My assumption was the Euro still has problems especially with Greece and fewer "rich" contributors once the UK leaves the EU. As I said before, I am no financial expert and may be totally wrong.
Most of the burden will be on France and Germany, both of whom want the EU to succeed. If Greece defaults Germany will be most hurt.
My assumption was the Euro still has problems especially with Greece and fewer "rich" contributors once the UK leaves the EU. As I said before, I am no financial expert and may be totally wrong.
Most of the burden will be on France and Germany, both of whom want the EU to succeed. If Greece defaults Germany will be most hurt.
19 Apr 2017
UK General Election - NOT amateur radio
OK, if I was Theresa May I guess I would have been persuaded to hold a General Election on June 8th. The opposition parties are in a mess and there is a good chance the ruling Conservative Party will win a few more (or a lot more?) seats.
However, General Elections often result in surprises. 52% voted OUT in the recent EU referendum, but most wanted a return to "good old England" with control over our laws and borders. I suspect most would prefer us to still be in the single EU market without tariffs.
It would not totally surprise me if this General Election threw up a few surprises. This is a chance for the Lib Dems to start a comeback. Personally I think Labour is committing suicide.
However, General Elections often result in surprises. 52% voted OUT in the recent EU referendum, but most wanted a return to "good old England" with control over our laws and borders. I suspect most would prefer us to still be in the single EU market without tariffs.
It would not totally surprise me if this General Election threw up a few surprises. This is a chance for the Lib Dems to start a comeback. Personally I think Labour is committing suicide.
21 Mar 2017
Triggering Article 50 and leaving the EU - NOT amateur radio
On March 29th the UK government will trigger Article 50, which signals the start of the process to leave the EU.
Although it is in the interests of both the UK and the EU to come to a decent deal, the outcome is not known. I am sure that the people of the UK would have stayed in the EU if the EU had been prepared to "think outside of the box".
I am sure most in Europe want free trade but are nervous about uncontrolled free movement. The UK has a proud history of helping refugees fleeing from conflict. I am sure the EU is worried about other member countries leaving "the club". To me, this is old-fashioned thinking.
If the EU supported free trade and not free movement or political union, then the EU would have a rosy future. As it is, I think the EU faces a difficult future.
Although it is in the interests of both the UK and the EU to come to a decent deal, the outcome is not known. I am sure that the people of the UK would have stayed in the EU if the EU had been prepared to "think outside of the box".
I am sure most in Europe want free trade but are nervous about uncontrolled free movement. The UK has a proud history of helping refugees fleeing from conflict. I am sure the EU is worried about other member countries leaving "the club". To me, this is old-fashioned thinking.
If the EU supported free trade and not free movement or political union, then the EU would have a rosy future. As it is, I think the EU faces a difficult future.
17 Jan 2017
UK Pound UP - NOT amateur radio
Since the Prime Minister clarified our position on leaving the EU following the BREXIT vote, I see that the UK pound is up against every currency. I guess people had already factored in that we are leaving the EU and are happy to have some certainty.
Although I have said this before, it would not surprise me at all if the Euro lost a lot of value this year. The EU is in grave danger of falling apart. We may be the first to vote to leave, but we will not be the last.
OK, I voted to "remain" in the EU, but think many nations want free trade but not a United States of Europe. Originally the EU was about maintaining peace in Europe but it has grown a lot in recent years and has rather lost its way.
Free trade? Yes.
Uncontrolled immigration? No.
U.S.E.? No.
Unless the EU changes, it is in grave danger.
See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/default.stm .
Although I have said this before, it would not surprise me at all if the Euro lost a lot of value this year. The EU is in grave danger of falling apart. We may be the first to vote to leave, but we will not be the last.
OK, I voted to "remain" in the EU, but think many nations want free trade but not a United States of Europe. Originally the EU was about maintaining peace in Europe but it has grown a lot in recent years and has rather lost its way.
Free trade? Yes.
Uncontrolled immigration? No.
U.S.E.? No.
Unless the EU changes, it is in grave danger.
See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/default.stm .
13 Jan 2017
BREXIT and the UK pound - NOT amateur radio
The UK pound has fallen since BREXIT although perhaps not as far as some expected. It could fall further, especially if a "hard BREXIT" becomes more probable.
I am no financial expert but I could imagine the euro losing a lot of its value in 2017. The Eurozone has some hard times ahead: Greece is very unlikely ever to be able to pay off its debts. There are strong right wing (anti EU) forces in many European nations. It would not surprise me to see the euro tumble. I may be very wrong, but the signs are there.
As for the UK, I think in the end we will be OK. I voted "remain", but there is a lot wrong with the EU. There is a lot wrong with the euro too: the idea is right but all nations need to be in step and abiding by the same rules as if they are in one nation. Greece should never have adopted the euro in my view.
See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/default.stm .
I am no financial expert but I could imagine the euro losing a lot of its value in 2017. The Eurozone has some hard times ahead: Greece is very unlikely ever to be able to pay off its debts. There are strong right wing (anti EU) forces in many European nations. It would not surprise me to see the euro tumble. I may be very wrong, but the signs are there.
As for the UK, I think in the end we will be OK. I voted "remain", but there is a lot wrong with the EU. There is a lot wrong with the euro too: the idea is right but all nations need to be in step and abiding by the same rules as if they are in one nation. Greece should never have adopted the euro in my view.
See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/default.stm .
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