Another theory bites the dust....
PU2POP (9582km) has copied my QRP 10m JT65 in the last 20 minutes. As there was very little 10m Es here, this suggests F layer only. I was not expecting to reach South America today, although I was hopeful.
UPDATE 1545z: 10m Es now to Sweden and Finland.
UPDATE 1608z: The storms seem to have missed us, passing over Peterborough and Northampton. Mind you, I am still watching the maps with concern as I think there could be further risks later. New Es from Scandinavia in the last few minutes.