8 Nov 2015

UK weather forecasts - NOT amateur radio

OK, this is yet another moan about UK weather forecasts.

I checked the BBC and the local Burwell weather just 1 hour ago. Both said dry until tonight so I planned a last cut of the grass. Stepped outside to, yes you guessed, rain.

Yes I know that the UK weather is complex, but surely they can get it right just 1 hour ahead? Apparently not.

3 comments:

Skylos said...

So let's say I look at my weather data for an area and calculate it will rain over 10% +/- 10% tolerance in the region. If I say it will rain and it doesnt, I am possibly 100% wrong. If I say it won't rain, I am possibly 20% wrong.

So basically you are setting the weatherman up for failure. Given the size of weather prediction regions and the inaccuracy in the science the prediction WILL be wrong in all but the most stable conditions.

You are applying a generalization for a region to specific conditions experienced at one point in the region. This is absurd. Yard work is frequently am opportunistic exercise around the weather.

I think your complaint is unjustifiable malignant the quite possibly excellent and accurate work the scientists are doing in weather prediction.

Roger G3XBM said...

OK, so I am not a meteorologist, but it would be nice to be able to forecast the weather just an hour ahead. I know weather forecasting is not a precise science but in all honesty I find REGULARLY that forecasts are SO wrong that it is just about impossible to rely on them for any kind of planning. Surely it is not asking too much for a forecast just ONE HOUR ahead to be right, especially when looking at the Met Office forecast for THIS village? As a minimum, give us a probability of accuracy!

With my taxes going on super-computers to improve forecasts I expect a better success rate and fewer excuses. Skylos, we shall have to differ!

Barry Chambers said...

Roger

I find the real-time weather radar meteox gives a better warning than the met office forecasts.

http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur

73

Barry, G8AGN