EA8BVP - Es or F2 on 10m?

EA8BVP (2986km) is again spotting my 500mW WSPR on 10m.  He spotted me at 1228z and, so far by 1332z,  7 times already today.  This could be by F2 or Es as there is a lot of Es about on 10m today, including stations in northern Spain around the half way point.  Last week, when I was away from home on holiday, I missed this station: he has been a regular 10m WSPR spotter most days for months. It was good to see him in the logs today again. In the past, I am pretty sure he was copied by single-hop F2, but today may well have been Es.

I am still hopeful of far more distant 10m (and 6m) WSPR spots well outside Europe by Es. In past years North America has been reachable by Es as has the Caribbean or even South America. So far, at least on WSPR, it has been Europeans and Israel only for me, the latter on 6m!

When conditions are good, people tend to leave WSPR and go to 10m SSB or CW or even AM or FM. This is understandable, but a pity as WSPR is most useful "sniffing out"  fleeting openings. You are far more likely to see a short (2 mins or even less) opening with WSPR as signal levels needed are low and there are usually plenty of people monitoring via WSPRnet.

UPDATE 1310z:   Just got a 10m WSPR report from DK6UG of  +11dB S/N. This is classic Es with enormous signals, much stronger than reports from locals. Es can be like this some days: just hugely strong signals. The implication is he would still have copied me even if I was using much less than 1mW.

UPDATE 1340z:  Not seen any sign of 6m stations from Japan. Don't know if this path has been open for the better equipped stations, but this very long path seems to open nearly every year in early June, possibly as a result of reflections off noctilucent clouds in the mesosphere?

UPDATE 1434z: EA8BVP (2986km) has spotted me 23 times today so far.

UPDATE 2010z:    EA8BVP has spotted me 63 times so far today.  Could the recent spots be F2?