Sunspot number today is 137 yet 10m propagation is only forecast to be "fair". This is the day I spot New Zealand on 10m WSPR! On previous days when 10m propagation was "good" I did not.
Moral - on 10m the forecasts are a guide. Do not always take them as gospel.
UPDATE 1020z: Still just Europeans copying my 500mW on 10m WSPR . No more "super DX" seen yet today.