19 Aug 2009

2013 for sunspot cycle 24 peak?

A new sunspot prediction from Australia is showing we haven't reached the minimum yet and the new peak won't now be until 2013! If correct we have to get used to conditions remaining poor on 10m F2 for some time yet. See http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/6


myles said...


According to Bill Livingston and Matt Penn of the National Solar Observatory in Tucson, Arizona, sunspot magnetic fields are waning. The two respected solar astronomers have been measuring solar magnetism since 1992. Their technique is based on Zeeman splitting of infrared spectral lines emitted by iron atoms in the vicinity of sunspots. Extrapolating their data into the future suggests that sunspots could completely disappear within decades. That would be a bummer for Spaceweather.com.

Don't count out sunspots just yet, however. While the data of Livingston and Penn are widely thought to be correct, far-reaching extrapolations may be premature. This type of measurement is relatively new, and the data reaches back less than 17 years. "Whether this is an omen of long-term sunspot decline, analogous to the Maunder Minimum, remains to be seen," they caution in a recent EOS article.

myles said...

it gets worse.

Penn said...

I remember the peak in 1990/91, unbelievable, I've never known conditions like it. I wasn't a licensed radio ham at that particular time, just a CB'er, but I had a shortwave receiver that used to literally bounce around the room due to the signals coming in from North America, if only we could get those conditions again, let's keep our fingers crossed. G0VQY