As usual when I am monitoring 6m FT8 RX, I am on 10m WSPR TX with 500mW. The TX is 100% but changes frequency every slot to avoid being clobbered by a strong station.
So far (at 0820z) just G2XV (18km) spotting me. No sign of Es here yet.
UPDATE 0900z: DK6UG (633km) has also spotted me. This could have been Es or off aircraft.
UPDATE 1507z: Just 3 different stations spotting me today. Unless things change, today looks disappointing.