Iran war

Most days, I watch the Joe Blogs videos on Iran. At the time of writing peace looks as elusive as ever and the world suffers.

Strait of Hormuz - what next?

It seems certain that the world has suffered a shock by the closure of these straits controlling access to the Gulf though which 20% of the world's oil flowed, to say nothing of jet fuel, natural gas, diesel and fertilisers.

Oil products are limited. Even if we use them sensibly, they will be exhausted eventually.

To some extent the world will adapt, but I think it will take years and years, if ever, for the USA to come back as the beacon of liberty and democracy it once was. In my view, they have made a huge mistake on the world stage. They have made no new friends and, sadly, alienated many, who will not forget.

Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

It looks like Iran has woken up to the power it has by controlling the Strait of Hormuz. This could have enormous impacts on the world economy.

Iran and bonds

In my view President Trump was foolhardy to go to war with Iran. The ramifications on the world are huge and dangerous. I really hope he can extricate the USA soon.

Iran

There is little doubt that this war has not gone as President Trump expected. 

I am sure now that he wished he had not started it and his popularity at home and across the world has  dropped. 

The USA was once considered a beacon of democracy, but not anymore. The damage done to the reputation of the USA could last generations.

Trump and Times Radio

It appears President Trump thinks a peace deal in Iran is very close. 

I seem to remember he said he could stop the Ukraine war (sorry special military operation) in 24 hours. Four years later we are still waiting....

Politics is complicated and advisors advise for a reason.

Iran

It seems to me that this asymmetric war is going nowhere. The best outcome would be de-escalation and a face-saving deal in which both sides feel they have won. The USA clearly has the military might. Iran has the drones.

Plan ahea.....d?

The war in Iran seems to be, allegedly, without a plan of how it might end. 

It is clear that fuel prices across the world have dramatically increased and it is very likely inflation will go up. 

In my view, we have seen nothing yet with jet fuel and diesel running short.

Far worse impacts are possible.

Always listen to experts!

See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c1wz2ld4535t .

What a mess

News from the Middle East is confusing if nothing else.  

The USA claims 2 merchant ships have passed the Strait of Hormuz whereas Iran flatly denies this! In the fog of war we cannot know who is true at the time of writing.

This much is certain. The impact on the world economy is immense. Even if the war stopped tomorrow, it could take a long time (years?) to recover. The USA does not want Iran to ever have a nuclear weapon. Arguably, the USA is a declining world power and China is growing.

Iran war latest

To me, it would appear that the USA is looking to exit the Iran war believing it has won. Clearly in this asymmetric war Iran has emerged stronger than many expected. The damage to the world is immense. 

Iran war

This has the potential to be the worst crisis since WW2. 

It is clear this crisis is far from over and the Strait of Hormuz remains a pinch point. In my view this war was entered without a clear exit plan.

Oil prices and inflation are likely to remain high. In my view things could get far worse.

See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx21m88rd14o .

Does President Trump have an off-ramp?

 

Certainly it is not clear to me who has won in Iran. President Trump claims victory. So does Iran.

Iran war - Joe Blogs video

 The situation in the Middle East seems very much in a state of flux.

Trump Report

Some think President Trump was insane to go to war with Iran. Many were upset by some of his "falling out" with the Pope. Many in the MAGA movement want him not to get involved in foreign wars and concentrate instead on the USA.

Iran crisis

Apparently the USA has the "wrong" sort of oil that it is not geared up to refine. So it exports oil and imports oil it can refine! 

With the failure of talks in Pakistan tensions are high again with President Trump threatening to blockade Iranian ports. Oil prices are rising again.

Times Radio is being very harsh!

What's the effect on the world of the failed Iran peace talks?

It is disappointing that the peace talks in Pakistan have failed. What is likely to happen now? 

Clearly, the immediate future looks more uncertain and markets will be "on edge". This Joe Blogs video may help.

Iran peace talks fail

The peace talks in Pakistan have failed.  Are we surprised?

I think this leaves President Trump with a problem: neither side (I think) has a real appetite to carry on fighting, yet Iran has arguably come out on top in this asymmetric conflict with a stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz.  

President Trump has to decide to escalate further or negotiate. He does not like to be beaten, especially when he has already announced victory! 

In my view President Trump seriously misjudged the situation. Many regard Iran as an evil state, but was this approach right? The world now suffers.

It will be interesting to see what the next steps are.

Iran - a very old and beautiful place

Last night I watched a YouTube video about Iran, I had absolutely no idea what a beautiful country this is. It would appear some idiots want to bomb it back to the Stone Age. 

We always see a biased version of facts. I am sure, like many countries, Iran has many faults. However, I always find it sad when idiots want to bomb history they don't like out of existence. 

I felt this about King Henry VIII, Palmyra in Syria and the Buddhist statues in Afghanistan. There are some very stupid people.

Joe Blogs

 This was the Joe Blogs video yesterday.

Iran war

 In my mind the USA has made a "pigs dinner" of this war. Both sides claim victory.

The war has cost the USA, allegedly, over $11B so far, which is a colossal amount.

Fuel prices are higher (even in the USA) and inflation is likely to move up.  The Strait of Hormuz (which was open before the war) is supposed to be open again .......but Iran controls it and will probably charge a toll. 

Yes, we may have set back Iran making missiles and nuclear weapons a bit. Has the USA gained any friends? I doubt it; they may well have lost a few. Iran still has low cost drones and control over the Straight of Hormuz. US victory? Hmmm.