My war

It would appear that the world is entering recession, has higher fuel costs and Iran will emerge stronger and the USA weaker.

Iran is considered an evil state, but if a war is undertaken it is wise to think about how it might end.

Economic emergency

 It is clear that the war against Iran is having consequences across the planet.

Does he know his plan?

One could be forgiven for thinking the US President does not fully appreciate the implications of the war in Iran. 

Maybe I am totally wrong and there is some incredible plan being enacted. After all, I am a minion not privy to intelligence and security briefs.

These facts are clear already:

1.  Inflation is likely to rise across the world including in the USA.

2.  Many (most?) face shortages of fuel and many other things.

3.  This is an asymmetric war between those with power and those with certain levers.

4.  Many innocent people will suffer.

Iran crisis

 Most days I watch the Joe Blogs videos. Escalation in the Iran war is a real risk.

 

Iran war

 "Poking the hornets nest" comes to mind. Let's hope those who started it know how to end it.

Questions

For years the Iranians have been considered the pariah state of the Middle East. 

I am not naturally a politician, but I have severe doubts that the USA and Israel will do any good and it looks like they are doing real harm. 

There are other examples of asymmetric wars such as Russia and Ukraine. This one has lasted 4 years already.

President Trump is saying the war will soon be over yet Iran still has loads of fast small gunboats which could cause havoc in the region to say nothing of the hacking harm they could do across the planet. My own view is the USA is entering its biggest crisis in nearly 100 years.

Iran war

Everyone knows that Iran is treated as the pariah of the Middle East and that a more "western leaning" Iran  would be more supportive of President Trump and the Israeli government.

What I do not understand are the true motives and end game in this current conflict. President Trump was allegedly voted into office partly on the grounds that the USA would stop getting involved in "forever wars". Hmmm....

If he stops the threat from missiles, drones and nuclear weapons threatening Israel will he stop and walk away?  This war could end quickly or it could go on for years. In my personal view the USA could have done far more good peacefully in the world. As it is the Middle East (possibly elsewhere) has been turned into turmoil.

Russian Rouble

 It looks like the Russian Rouble could fall heavily this year as Russian oil sales fall . 

With the war against Iran by the USA and Israel, we could be in for a rough ride in the world in the months ahead. Maybe this will help Russia?

The USA and Iran

Things are moving very fast. I am sure President Trump would like regime change in Tehran, but at the same time does not want "forever" wars with no clear end. With the mid-term elections coming up, if he was to get embroiled in a war with Iran this might be really bad for his prospects.

Iran

Events are moving very fast. This was written at 1012z on January 13th, so events may already have changed when you read this.

At the moment Donald Trump has threatened intervention, but not carried this out.   It is clear that lots of Iranian people are deeply upset with, amongst other things, inflation that is making some foods totally too costly for many. If there was to be a revolution, there is no clear leader emerging.  As I write we wait and see.

UPDATE  1631z:  Trump promises protesters help is on the way. See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cj691w2e840t. 

Regime change?

If I have understood correctly, the USA president no longer wants the USA to be the world's policeman and is going for a more isolationist position. He is also looking for a "safer" world with fewer conflicts.   

We can all agree on the latter, but I suspect most would seek a world based on freedom and justice for all humankind. It would appear we are moving more towards a world of empires run by powerful rich billionaires.

President Trump's recent statements on Iran seem contradictory. There is little doubt he sees Iran as a threat to world order and stability, but I get the feeling he is really hoping there will be regime change in Iran.

Bunker busting bombs - NOT amateur radio

Last week, the USA used expensive "bunker busting" bombs on at least one Iranian nuclear site. The US president said it was highly effective and has put Iran's nuclear program back many years. 

A leaked intelligence report is more guarded. The know-how still exists and much of the highly enriched uranium may have been moved beforehand.

If the US president is wrong the implications could be enormous. I find it hard to accept that the presidents of the USA and Israel can be so sure, allegedly, unless they really do have incredible intelligence and spies.

Personally, I always prefer talking rather than "bully boy" tactics. 

Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe and Iran - NOT amateur radio

It sounds like the detained dual nationality Briton is (eventually) being released from Iran and is on her way back to the UK. It appears the Iranian authorities were holding her because the UK government was breaking international law for withholding £400M from a cancelled tank order in the 1970s.

Several things come to mind:

    1.   The UK government should always operate within international law.

    2.   The Iranian government has no right to hold an innocent mother all this time as a hostage and bargaining chip.

See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60756870 .

UPDATE 1340z:  She is on the plane. I hope she is soon reunited with her family.

Iran tanker Grace 1 - NOT amateur radio

As Gibraltar has received assurances from Iran that this vessel will not break EU sanctions, they say it can sail. It was impounded as it was thought bound for Syria.

However, the USA now wants to seize it. I am not party to the USA's intelligence, but this looks like President Trump is out to show how tough he is in the run-up to the next elections. He may impress some, but not me. So far his foreign policies have seemed poor to me. Others may disagree.

See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49379144

War by accident? - NOT amateur radio

Probably Iran and the USA do not want outright war. However, the chance of one side miscalculating the actions of the other is quite high. President Trump is a "loose cannon" and sometimes acts irrationally. Iran is not exactly a peaceful and loving nation. I am sure behind the scenes both sides are actively engaged in cyber war.

Although Iran is far from perfect, I personally think Trump is like a little boy with a can of petrol and a box of matches.

Iran-USA conflict - NOT amateur radio

We live in dangerous times with the USA president "shooting from the hip" as if he is in the wild west. Actually the world could fall into a deep recession should he attack Iran. Iran is a dangerous unknown, but just as on climate change, the USA president seems to think he knows best.

See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48728465

USA and Iran - NOT amateur radio

There is no love lost between the USA and Iran. Iran could well be the aggressor in the recent conflict in the Gulf. What bothers me is dirty tricks. It is just feasible that the whole thing is a CIA plot, unlikely I know.

In times of heightened tension and war it is extremely hard to get independent, verifiable proof. All I caution is caveat emptor. What you see may not be what it seems.

Iran - NOT amateur radio

OK, I am sure Iran has plenty of faults, but then so have the USA, UK and many other western nations. The best way to win "hearts and minds" is by dialogue and not by imposing sanctions in my view.

Perhaps President Trump is thinking more of the mid-term elections tomorrow in the USA? Mind you, he is a genius (he told us so), so perhaps he is so wise, just like on climate change.

Sadly, I cannot remember one USA president who has been so ridiculed across the planet. What amazes me is that he is so popular in the USA. Of course, a rich billionaire is very in touch with the common man.

Said with lots of sarcasm!

See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-46094489 .