The latest predictions still show the peak of the current cycle exceeding that of the last one. The last had 2 peaks separated by about 2 years, with the second peak greater than the first.
Showing posts with label sunspot cycle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sunspot cycle. Show all posts
3 Sept 2022
5 Nov 2019
False dawn?
At the moment the solar numbers just aren't clear. We may be starting the climb out of the solar minimum, or this could just be another blip and we are bouncing along the bottom of the solar cycle still. It will be some time (a year?) before we can be sure. I hope conditions start to improve soon.
See http://www.solen.info/solar/
See http://www.solen.info/solar/
6 Aug 2018
The next few years
We are entering the sunspot minimum. Some expect this to happen in 2020. What is certain is the higher HF bands will seem very quiet as people look to lower frequencies to work DX.
Even at the quietest of times 10m can open on N-S paths, so never give up. With FT8 it is even more probable that openings will be found. Es is good in the spring and summer (northern hemisphere) and often real DX can be spotted. FT8 will be invaluable.
As for the next peak, this is anyone's guess. Some say it will be similar to the last cycle. Earlier predictions talked about a very weak cycle with no real peak. Conditions rapidly improve after the minimum, but just what will happen is hard to know.
My recommendation is stick with 10m FT8 and put out the odd CQ. Someone, somewhere may spot you!
Even at the quietest of times 10m can open on N-S paths, so never give up. With FT8 it is even more probable that openings will be found. Es is good in the spring and summer (northern hemisphere) and often real DX can be spotted. FT8 will be invaluable.
As for the next peak, this is anyone's guess. Some say it will be similar to the last cycle. Earlier predictions talked about a very weak cycle with no real peak. Conditions rapidly improve after the minimum, but just what will happen is hard to know.
My recommendation is stick with 10m FT8 and put out the odd CQ. Someone, somewhere may spot you!
8 Nov 2014
Sunspots and 10m
Sunspot number today is 96 and 10m daytime propagation is forecast to be "fair".
I am already copying RA3APW's 100mW WSPR beacon from Moscow, HS0ZKM (9485km) is also coming through via F2 on 10m WSPR. There are lots of Europeans coming through on 10m WSPR.
I am already copying RA3APW's 100mW WSPR beacon from Moscow, HS0ZKM (9485km) is also coming through via F2 on 10m WSPR. There are lots of Europeans coming through on 10m WSPR.
12 Oct 2014
Solar Cycle 25 Predictions
It has been notoriously hard to predict future solar cycles, but the science is improving all the time. Right now, the experts are predicting that solar cycle 25 will be very small indeed. Some think we are moving towards another Maunder Minimum when solar sunspots all but vanish for around 50 years. If so, most of us alive now will never experience "good" HF conditions ever again in our lifetimes. Experts can be wrong!
See http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/25/first-estimate-of-solar-cycle-25-amplitudesmallest-in-over-300-years/ .
On a positive note, poor solar activity often means the lower frequency bands are better. With some luck, we may have a new international contiguous band at 60m in a few years' time. This depends on WRC2015.
Regarding cycle 24, it looks like the peak was Feb 2014.
See http://www.solen.info/solar/ .
See http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/25/first-estimate-of-solar-cycle-25-amplitudesmallest-in-over-300-years/ .
On a positive note, poor solar activity often means the lower frequency bands are better. With some luck, we may have a new international contiguous band at 60m in a few years' time. This depends on WRC2015.
Regarding cycle 24, it looks like the peak was Feb 2014.
See http://www.solen.info/solar/ .
20 Jul 2014
Solar activity
See http://www.solen.info/solar/ .
Looking at the data on this excellent page, it now looks pretty certain that we have started on the downwards part of the current cycle. This does NOT mean an end to decent HF conditions. For several years to come there will be good days and 15,12 and 10m will still support DX but far less easily than around the sunspot maximum years.
Even in the depths of the last minimum N-S DX was still there to be worked on QRP SSB, so expect some decent openings. This is really where regular WSPR operation will help, by seeing just how often 10m opens up. As I have said before, operating on the weaker parts of the solar cycle are, in many ways, more challenging and interesting. When 10m is wide open it becomes too easy.
Also, don't forget Es (sporadic-E) which can produce some spectacular DX at the right time of the year - in the northern hemisphere this is usually May, Jun, July and August but Es can occur (more fleetingly) at other times times of the year. This is why regular WSPR operation will help.
Looking at the data on this excellent page, it now looks pretty certain that we have started on the downwards part of the current cycle. This does NOT mean an end to decent HF conditions. For several years to come there will be good days and 15,12 and 10m will still support DX but far less easily than around the sunspot maximum years.
Even in the depths of the last minimum N-S DX was still there to be worked on QRP SSB, so expect some decent openings. This is really where regular WSPR operation will help, by seeing just how often 10m opens up. As I have said before, operating on the weaker parts of the solar cycle are, in many ways, more challenging and interesting. When 10m is wide open it becomes too easy.
Also, don't forget Es (sporadic-E) which can produce some spectacular DX at the right time of the year - in the northern hemisphere this is usually May, Jun, July and August but Es can occur (more fleetingly) at other times times of the year. This is why regular WSPR operation will help.
24 Jun 2014
Sunspots slowly falling?
Today's sunspot count is 65 with "normal" 20-30MHz conditions. It looks to me as if the solar activity is now on the slide downwards. This does not mean an end to good conditions. This autumn 15, 12 and 10m should still be in very good shape and it will be a few years before we really see the changes.
There are all sorts of predictions about the next few cycles. The consensus is the next few cycles will be ones with low solar activity. It is still too soon to say if we are really entering another Maunder minimum. Don't worry: this is a chance to explore HF in different times. There is unlikely to be any (much) East-West F-layer propagation on 12,10 and 6m but North-South propagation will be possible some of the time and openings on Es can be surprisingly distant in all directions at the optimum times of the year.
And there are always VHF, UHF, microwaves and nanowaves to explore!
Let us see the coming years as a challenge. We may never see really good conditions again in our lifetimes but there will still be interesting propagation and DX to be worked and heard.
There are all sorts of predictions about the next few cycles. The consensus is the next few cycles will be ones with low solar activity. It is still too soon to say if we are really entering another Maunder minimum. Don't worry: this is a chance to explore HF in different times. There is unlikely to be any (much) East-West F-layer propagation on 12,10 and 6m but North-South propagation will be possible some of the time and openings on Es can be surprisingly distant in all directions at the optimum times of the year.
And there are always VHF, UHF, microwaves and nanowaves to explore!
Let us see the coming years as a challenge. We may never see really good conditions again in our lifetimes but there will still be interesting propagation and DX to be worked and heard.
4 May 2014
2008/2009 sunspots
Just looking back and I noticed a graph showing solar activity just 5-6 years ago. When conditions are pretty decent - as at present - it is hard to remember just how dire they were back then. We thought the minimum would never end - it went on for years and years with hardly any sunspots. Next time, around 2019/2020, the minimum may last for many years if we are indeed entering a Maunder minimum. It is possible hardly any sunspots will be present even at the next maximum. Only time will tell. Whatever happens we have to enjoy our bands in an appropriate way.
10 Jan 2014
New Solar Peak?
The most recent high solar activity looks likely to mean a new second sunspot peak for cycle 24. See http://www.solen.info/solar/ .
This page was showing the peak as 66.9 (smoothed sunspot number) in Feb 2012 but expect to see this revised to a much later date! I find this site very useful.
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