Electric cars - NOT amateur radio

In the news today was the sacking of 4000 people from Ford because of disappointing sales of electric cars. In my view we will see a major shift to electric cars when:

• Range is much increased.
• There is a move away from LiIon batteries.
• Prices are far lower.

In my view we are not there yet. In a few years things could be totally different. I am surprised that research in battery technology is not enormous as whoever makes the breakthrough will capture the market.

Electric cars - NOT amateur radio

In a few years, as mentioned recently, I am expecting a "tipping point" when most use electric cars rather than cars fuelled by fossil fuels. My prediction is this will happen about 2028. 

For this to happen, range has to be considerably improved and prices have to fall dramatically. Electric cars today appeal mainly to early adopters, those who feel strongly against fossil fuels and those who only make very short journeys like shopping trips and who can charge at home.  I think the breakthrough will come with solid state batteries.

Usually on my trips to Cambridge I see about 2 electric cars. Today I saw 10!! There must be a lot of early adopters!

Electric Cars - NOT amateur radio

Most days now I see 1-2 electric cars. In other words they are not (yet) common. As the years go by I expect there will be far more. It is my view that we will have a "tipping point" when most of us will be driving electric cars and internal combustion care will seem "past it". At least one local amateur has bought an electric car recently, although unless you do mostly local journeys, I think the range is still too low.  The tipping point will come, in my view, when most trips can be done in a day without recharging i.e.the range is over 300 miles. OK, most journey's are far shorter, but the battery technology is still "not there".

Electric cars - NOT amateur radio

Let me start by saying I want to buy an electric car, however I think the technology is not quite there yet.

As with flat screen TVs and digital cameras, I am sure there will be a tipping point when most people will opt for electric and forget cars powered by fossil fuels. Personally, I think this will happen when realistic ranges exceed 300 miles and the price drops. At the moment, you have to be an early adopter or do mainly local driving. I guess if fast charging was very common and plentiful that would help. Although most of my journeys are short, the range today would require me to recharge once even to travel to north Norfolk and home again. This is just too stressful.

No, my view is this is a "not yet" technology. Maybe in 5-10 years?

Electric cars - NOT amateur radio

At the moment, people are pushing electric cars (Tesla, Nissan, etc). To me, who would be keen to buy one, they are expensive, limited range and a technology that is not quite there yet.

My main gripe is range. Other than local journeys a charge (or more than one) is required. Published range figures probably assume summer, no lights on, no air con, fresh batteries etc. i.e. not realistic conditions. As the batteries age, capacity is likely to decrease. I could do without the stress of finding a charging point that is available.

When batteries get cheaper and the range is much better on a single charge they will take off. Until then, they will remain a niche product.

I suspect they are like digital cameras and flat screen TVs: at some point they will be the ubiquitous mode of transport. We are not there yet.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car

Electric cars: the future? - NOT amateur radio

I like the idea of electric cars. Less pollution, economic, quiet. However, I am still concerned about range between charges.

Some models now claim ranges of up to 300 miles. I wonder if this is like mpg claimed figures which rarely match "real world" conditions. I expect these figures are in summer, new battery, no lights on, no air-conditioning, just a driver, no luggage. I also expect replacement batteries will be very expensive.

Unless there is a major breakthrough in battery technology that comfortably does 300 miles in real world driving, I do not think electric cars will really take off.

For some time I have wondered if the answer might be smaller batteries and power charging from a buried cable in main roads. The battery would only be used "on its own" on minor roads.

There is lots of research into batteries and lots of money invested.