BRICS - NOT amateur radio

Whilst not at all agreeing with the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, I can understand why many countries want to move away from the once mighty US dollar. 

It is my view that the 21st century will see a realignment of world power in which the USA will be far less important.

Perverse? - NOT amateur radio

On the day a vaccine for Covid-19 was approved for UK rollout, the value of the UK pound against the major currencies such as the euro, yen and US dollar has fallen! OK I appreciate a BREXIT deal has still to be done, but I was expecting the pound to have a good day.

UK Pound against US Dollar - NOT amateur radio

About 18 months ago "experts" were talking about the UK Pound being worth about 1 US Dollar. At the moment the UK Pound buys about $1.38.

Moral? Don't always believe the "experts"! They guess too.

UK Pound against the Euro? I was wrong last year!

UK Pound against the US Dollar - NOT amateur radio

At the moment the USA seems to have a joke in charge who is even losing the respect of his own party. Personally, I give him 6 months, maybe 12, before his time will be up.

I fail to see how this billionaire is able to be the voice of ordinary US citizens. "Make America great again" is a fine tag line, but making it happen requires the gravitas of office and serious behaviour, not silly tweets.

Meanwhile, the US dollar continues to weaken against the UK Pound.

UK Pound - NOT amateur radio

The UK pound seems to be gaining ground against most major currencies including the euro and the US dollar. BREXIT talks are at an early stage, but talk of a UK pound "melt-down" seems premature.

See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/default.stm

Euro - NOT amateur radio

For some time, I have predicted that the value of the Euro will fall. It has not happened yet.

When the UK signs Article 50 to formally start exiting the EU I expect the uncertainty may reduce the value of the UK Pound against several currencies, including the Euro. I suspect this will be a blip and by the end of 2017 the Euro will be well down against the UK Pound and US Dollar.

Not being a monetary expert, I could be totally wrong, but to me the EU is like a pressure cooker. The pressure (for change) is increasing and at some point this will hit crisis point.

I voted to "remain" in the UK referendum but I fail to see how the Euro (or the whole EU) can last without big changes. To me, the pressure for change is growing ever stronger. The German economy has most to lose.

UK Pound to Euro exchange rate - NOT amateur radio

It is my view that the Euro will lose value this year so the UK Pound will buy more Euros. Of course, I could be entirely wrong! The reasons for thinking this are:

• Greek debt is still a big issue and there will be fewer nations able to bail them out.
• Several nations are disillusioned with the Euro project and are worried by totally free movement within the EU.
• Several nations are in favour of tariff-free borders to trade but are nervous of ever closer integration.
• I think the UK will show the world it can succeed outside of the EU.

No, several things point to an improved exchange rate. As for the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen exchange rates, I am less clear.

By the way, in last year's EU referendum I voted to "remain" in the EU. I believe the EU faces a difficult year ahead and this year will be "crunch time".