Has the decline already started?

Some time ago, I expressed my concerns about the future of our hobby as the average age of radio amateurs increased. 

My concern was that as we age, it is likely that fewer new radios will be bought. In 20 years' time several of us will be in care homes! If we still have amateur radio access, it will probably be with internet radios.

Already, I think one European amateur radio dealer has gone. My prediction is others will follow across the planet. 

The danger is magazines will see less advertising revenue, so some will shrink or go out of business. 

Some manufacturers will view our hobby as a "lost cause" and may decide to leave the market. There will be a scramble to cut costs. I really cannot see all our traditional Japanese manufacturers continuing in our market without radical changes to their business models. Those that will still be around are those that see the future and adapt accordingly.

Now, some places are bucking the trend and the number of new radio amateurs is increasing. In my view, this is the exception. What we have to recognise is that what attracted us is very unlikely to attract many newcomers today.

Be in little doubt, our hobby is about to encounter very hard times in my view.