Which dealers will survive?

Sorry if I sound like the grim reaper!

There is little doubt that many (most?) radio amateurs are getting old. Yes, there are younger people entering the hobby, but the vast majority are old men. This means several things.

1. We need to attract and keep younger people.
2. There will be fewer radio magazines. Even now, you have to look hard to find any in newsagents, whereas computer and gaming mags are breeding.
3. Those mags that survive are likely to be thinner with fewer adverts.
4. There will be fewer dealers.
5. Most new products will be made in China (even if designed in the USA or Japan).
6. There will be fewer manufacturers making amateur radio products.
7. There will be fewer new products.

This is my forecast (I very much hope I am wrong):

1. At least one major manufacturer will leave the amateur radio market or go bust.
2. There will be half the number of radio amateurs on the planet in 20 years.

In the same way that high street shops need to re-invent themselves or go under, so our hobby has to change. The next 20 years are crisis times for a great many institutions such as shops, churches and, of course, amateur radio.

It would not surprise me if many authorities just allowed all users to use any VLF, LF, MF, HF and VHF frequencies without a licence on a strictly "non-interference" basis, perhaps with a low power limit. If you were OFCOM or the FCC this would make life easy. It is called deregulation. In other words, copping out.  Radio amateurs that remain can sort themselves out!